tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post114168663160823109..comments2023-10-20T07:59:45.124-07:00Comments on Sonoma Housing Bubble : A Ripple in the Bubble...Athenahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1142138642328893072006-03-11T20:44:00.000-08:002006-03-11T20:44:00.000-08:00Well Confused... the thing is, you seem to have be...Well Confused... the thing is, you seem to have been raised not to live above your means.<BR/><BR/>That is not true of the home debtors since the free money from Greenspan days... the people who jumped on the housing bubble train financed themselves into the lifestyles they wished to become accustomed to...<BR/><BR/>The problem is... their hog like desire to become accustomed to the lifestyle they posed themselves into has turned into a sense of entitlement.<BR/><BR/>But guess what? Just because they feel entitled, doesn't mean the economy will support their desire.<BR/><BR/>People are going to catch on. These folks have not been "affording" houses. They have been selling their souls to their mortgage, and maxing out their equity and splurging on a lifestyle that they too cannot afford.<BR/><BR/>The only thing that has made it possible are the buyers who gladly took their debt off their hands and were willing to give up the majority of their incomes to do it.<BR/><BR/>People who have to shoehorn themselves into a mortgage payment they can barely meet are not investors, they are not home owners. They are the biggest fools left holding the bag for the biggest debtors.<BR/><BR/>At one time people who didn't pay their debts had to file bankruptcy... now they slap a for sale sign on their debts and call it the Real Estate Market.<BR/><BR/>These people have been living well above their means, and when people stop rushing in and rewarding them for it- they will have to pay the piper.<BR/><BR/>It is much easier to live within your means than it is to always have to be shistering for a bigger fool trying to hold on to what you don't really have in the first place.Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1141977265914063182006-03-09T23:54:00.000-08:002006-03-09T23:54:00.000-08:00No history has not dealt kindly indeed.but you kno...No history has not dealt kindly indeed.<BR/><BR/>but you know what? Ask any person you know what subject bores them the most... guess what they are most likely to say?<BR/><BR/>History.<BR/><BR/>I had this great professor at SRJC a long time ago. Gus P'Manolis and one of his favorite sayings when discussing how the more things change the more they stay the same was:<BR/><BR/>"History un-learned, repeats itself."<BR/><BR/><BR/>So I zillowed a friend's house the other night. The purchase price of it in 2004 was somewhere in the high 300'sk<BR/><BR/>Zillow shows that in the past 30 days his house value is down by 2%. The whole zipcode of 95476 is down 1.1% and Sonoma county as a whole is down 1.4%<BR/><BR/><BR/>and here is some history...<BR/><BR/>in 1993 the house was sold for near $175k<BR/><BR/>in 1997 just four years later it was sold for near 120k<BR/><BR/>over four years time the price actually WENT DOWN.<BR/><BR/>Wait... I thought real estate always goes up?<BR/><BR/>in 1998 just a year after the last sale it sold for about 30k more than 1997.<BR/><BR/>Then 7 years later it sold for near $380k in 2004<BR/><BR/>What will history tell us next do you think?Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1141755140916833572006-03-07T10:12:00.000-08:002006-03-07T10:12:00.000-08:00I could see he just didnt want to hear about it."G...<I>I could see he just didnt want to hear about it.</I><BR/><BR/>"General Custer, I don't think these Sioux will run when provoked"<BR/><BR/>"Mr. Andrews, you assert your <I>Titanic</I> is unsinkable, simply because it 'cannot sink'?"<BR/><BR/>"what they perceive as newly abundant liquidity can readily disappear. … history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1141706704611692362006-03-06T20:45:00.000-08:002006-03-06T20:45:00.000-08:00glad you posted this. I had a big conversation las...glad you posted this. I had a big conversation last night with that same neighbor I mentioned before who thinks things will only keep going up here. We had some friends over for dinner and to watch the Awards last night, this guy just would not belive me when I said no, things are going down. I was almost on the verge of taking him into my office and showing him your blog, but I could see he just didnt want to hear about it.moonvalleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12058991195867052788noreply@blogger.com