tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post114653291446080480..comments2023-10-20T07:59:45.124-07:00Comments on Sonoma Housing Bubble : What Would a Smart Person Do?Athenahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1146609026694846242006-05-02T15:30:00.000-07:002006-05-02T15:30:00.000-07:00LOL... well when did that rule get punted from the...LOL... well when did that rule get punted from the industry?<BR/><BR/>That is my rule too... I refuse to pay more than 30% so if the prices represent more than that and there are not incomes to support it- we have a problem. 3x my income should buy someone a pretty decent house... but not here. It would buy me someplace that I wouldn't want to live in... and I know my income is well above the average in sonoma... so what does that say about how precariously we are sitting on the edge of the bubble?Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1146588051185363742006-05-02T09:40:00.000-07:002006-05-02T09:40:00.000-07:00just looking through a "harrisonn's guide to appra...just looking through a "harrisonn's guide to appraisal,"income must be related to house prices.as a rule families cannot afford to pay more than two to three times their annual income for a house"this is the standard appraisal text...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1146587615135555192006-05-02T09:33:00.000-07:002006-05-02T09:33:00.000-07:00i was talking to my world rep yesterday,he has an ...i was talking to my world rep yesterday,he has an arm about to reset and was talking about doing a refi to another hybrid...i asked him how much th lifetime cap had gone up this year...40%...i asked him if that didn't indicate where his employers thought rates were going...and asked him how long most world loans took to pay off/refi.(5-7 years)i told him that showed what his emloyers expected in 5-7 years and suggested he run the #' and see if a 6.53% 1 point loan might be cheaper.(than a 12.9%mloan) we'll see.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1146553097299646092006-05-01T23:58:00.000-07:002006-05-01T23:58:00.000-07:00Oh I am SO excited for you! YAY!!! I told you our ...Oh I am SO excited for you! YAY!!! I told you our unnamed family member also decided the mcmansion was a bad idea. My mother was sure to tell me that the unnamed family member did not change her mind because of anything I said. She said the real reason was because of the loan... the loan concerned her. (a take it in the butt loan at her age just could not be a good idea!)<BR/><BR/>Apparently nothing else I said was compelling. I mean how could any of that be true?<BR/><BR/>You know, real estate never goes down. You can't lose. Everyone wants to live here. There are lots of rich people moving here, and we have a lot of people who commute to high paying tech jobs out of the area... ;-D <BR/><BR/>So I didn't succeed in transferring any economics 101 information, but do I get at least half of a brownie button for preventing the county from having one more F'd borrower?Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1146552109618060762006-05-01T23:41:00.000-07:002006-05-01T23:41:00.000-07:00I felt so proud of myself on Sunday. The neighbor ...I felt so proud of myself on Sunday. The neighbor I've mentioned before, who's about to come into some money and wants to "grow wealth" in RE came over to the house. This time I took him into our office , sat him down and showed him Zillow, Zip Re, and Foreclosures.com.<BR/> I showed him the house he's thinking of buying. I showed him how it sold a few years ago for 200k. I showed him how the current "owners" are now trying to unload it for 800+k. I showed him the graphs that showed what RE in the area had been doing for the last 10 years, how it had basically been flat and then leaped up suddenly all of a sudden, He was stunned. <BR/> After he sat for a moment thinking, we then sat down and looked at some other places an un-named Re'er had been pushing on him. He just shook his head. Then we sat down and looked at rentals. He finally got it.moonvalleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12058991195867052788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1146546541487015102006-05-01T22:09:00.000-07:002006-05-01T22:09:00.000-07:00Pardon me neighbor, but could you spare a wheelbar...Pardon me neighbor, but could you spare a wheelbarrow full of gold?Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1146546281270669532006-05-01T22:04:00.000-07:002006-05-01T22:04:00.000-07:00"Won't rising mortgage rates and fast-accumulating...<I>"Won't rising mortgage rates and fast-accumulating inventories of unsold houses cool the market even further in the months ahead? Could appreciation rates sag -- or actually swing negative -- making any purchase I might close this spring look like a dumb move a year or two down the road?"</I><BR/><BR/>As I just realized (I know, I am slow), it is even worse when you denominate the price of a house in terms of an ounce of gold. Go see my latest post to see what I am talking about. It was an eye-opener to me.<BR/><BR/>I'd love to know what this graph looks like for Sonoma.Marinitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01778945220593425787noreply@blogger.com