tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post114982660975755710..comments2023-10-20T07:59:45.124-07:00Comments on Sonoma Housing Bubble : To Put it Mildly...We Have Too Much SupplyAthenahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1150130165840567242006-06-12T09:36:00.000-07:002006-06-12T09:36:00.000-07:00it appears to me that the supply has just begun to...it appears to me that the supply has just begun to increase...many speculators have yet to put their "investments" on the market...and a lot of new stuff will be coming on the market this summer,just as demand is waning.demand can come and go a lot more quickly than inventory,and by this fall their will be very few buyers...in a sense it doesn't matter if there are 1,000 or 5,000 homes for sale in the county,what counts is whether there are willing and able buyers at or near the asking price.once the mood of the buyers changes,the tide has turned and all the blather of the nar won't change things, markets are not rational!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1150092578908095672006-06-11T23:09:00.000-07:002006-06-11T23:09:00.000-07:00I think it will help out the supply issue quite we...I think it will help out the supply issue quite well if and when we do decide to buy we all tell our realtors not to show us anything purchased after 2001.<BR/><BR/>;-)Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1150092363407015212006-06-11T23:06:00.000-07:002006-06-11T23:06:00.000-07:00"we honestly don't have anywhere near enough suppl...<I>"we honestly don't have anywhere near enough supply..."</I><BR/><BR/>Anywhere = nowhere.<BR/>Price corrections are already underway in Sonoma county; supply ~ prices.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1150078421387760782006-06-11T19:13:00.000-07:002006-06-11T19:13:00.000-07:00Nice comments but we honestly don't have anywhere ...Nice comments but we honestly don't have anywhere near enough supply. We'll not even have barely enough supply when sellers are accepting prices replecting moderate appreciation over the period thay've owned. We'll have almost enough supply when investors are losing everything. We'll have exactly enough supply when people having bought 2002-2007 uniformly lose money. "Too much supply" will only be when owning is cheaper than renting.Rob Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10042154106850545479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1150067285879600682006-06-11T16:08:00.000-07:002006-06-11T16:08:00.000-07:00the other note that I didn't mention was that he c...the other note that I didn't mention was that he came over having bought a painting. Let's just say thathe paid waaaay too much for it. It was a charming scene of a moonlit cottage a quiet pond, a fulll moon, lovely trees. Lights were glimmering in the windows. Why did he buy it? It symbolized home to him sez he. No wonder he overpaid for that dump. Hopefully it'll hang on the walls there long enough for him to enjoy it.moonvalleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12058991195867052788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1150065467471533062006-06-11T15:37:00.000-07:002006-06-11T15:37:00.000-07:00wow MV! Great scoops. well, we will see how it t...wow MV! Great scoops. well, we will see how it turns out, I guess we are in for the full As the Flippers Turn show... I wonder how long the minidrama will run?<BR/><BR/>The W. Spain house... I saw that too and was going to see if you knew what was up with it...?Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1150054559927179172006-06-11T12:35:00.000-07:002006-06-11T12:35:00.000-07:00Just wanted to add one more nugget here. There's a...Just wanted to add one more nugget here. There's a large oldish house on west Spain, about 5th west I think. Anway a For Sale sign went up on it a few months ago, followed by a Sold sign, followed by an in escrow sign, followed by a Sale Pending sign, then nothing. That sign went down, now replaced by a For Rent sign. The place is large and empty. Anyone know what's up there?moonvalleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12058991195867052788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1150050996745733502006-06-11T11:36:00.000-07:002006-06-11T11:36:00.000-07:00Well, our former neighbor came over last night. He...Well, our former neighbor came over last night. He bought the house...for the magic number of get this 666k..I made a mark of the beast remark which I don't think he got. I asked whether he closed on 6/6/06?<BR/> One of the partners is an RE agent with a place on the plaza whos' name will not be mentioned here. One of the other partners is putting in sweat equity, except for our pal who is also putting in money.<BR/> I don't see how these people are going to do it, as the flippers haven't even rented out their present place here in town yet, and they've just re-fi'ed to buy out the partner they had in their city (SF) place.<BR/> How did these guys ever qualify for a loan? Oh, of course I shouldn't even ask that question since this is the land of voodoo financing.<BR/> Anyhoo....he's going to live in the "guest unit/garage/whatever" and make it over into a granny unit. The F''s are going to live in the big house, with the three bedrooms. I don't know how all this is going to work out but we'll have front row seats with which to test our bearish theories.<BR/> I have to add , this friend who is totally unsophisticated is all matters computer, was sitting around with us last night ad we were explaining the art of search engines to him. my husband said, just ask a question, we'll find the answer and show you how it works. We were expecting something on the order of the GNP of Togo or something like that. He asked...."What's the best city to invest in Real Estate and make money?"<BR/> the answer....<A HREF="http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060611/BUSINESS/606110330/1003/SHORE" REL="nofollow">this</A> is what came up.moonvalleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12058991195867052788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1150042339755680892006-06-11T09:12:00.000-07:002006-06-11T09:12:00.000-07:00REskeptic said... "East Side Sonoma is the mexican...<I>REskeptic said... <BR/>"East Side Sonoma is the mexican free zone..."<BR/><BR/>...ironically a stone's throw from General Vallejo's barracks and the Mexican mission. Vestiges of that first white-flight movment, the Bear Flag revolt?<BR/><BR/>I think you're dead-on. Unspoken but true, I'm sure that applies to Marin as well, and probably accounts for disparaging views of Novato. <BR/></I><BR/><BR/>Ironic isn't it? Very true I think.Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149993330158145182006-06-10T19:35:00.000-07:002006-06-10T19:35:00.000-07:00well their universe sounds like a very interesting...well their universe sounds like a very interesting place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there. <BR/><BR/>why am I not surprised at their folly?Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149993115220445822006-06-10T19:31:00.000-07:002006-06-10T19:31:00.000-07:00hi athena,too much partying?i went to another brth...hi athena,too much partying?i went to another brthday party today,talked to a nice lawyer!! who was there with her daughter,she and hubby bought a nice place in sebastopol last year...started talking real estate,said she and husband refied home in novato to come up with downpayment,didn't know what kind of loan that was sd thinks they have fixed on new home but not sure.....this is a freaking attorney,hubby a stockbroker...and don't know the terms of the million dollar loan they took out a year ago! they bought 4,000 sq ft home on 5 acres,beautifully remodelled...she said "i'm an attorney,but i didn't understand a word the loan officer said" she asked me if the loan officer lied to her...i told her more likely that the loan officer didn't understand a word they said either...and told i'd charge a cup of tea and a muffin to go over it with her.where did all these guppies come from? how did they survive long enough to breed? these people exist in a universe i have never even visited.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149992371118165132006-06-10T19:19:00.000-07:002006-06-10T19:19:00.000-07:00maybe your buddy needs a refresher course on the d...maybe your buddy needs a refresher course on the definition of fundamental.<BR/><BR/>I would say his pot is cracked just because he stated the cost of a house is ten times the income, but economic fundamentals will keep the prices from crashing.<BR/><BR/>bwahahahahaha... and what fundamentals would those be being the leading measurement has lost all sanity?Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149992224926444542006-06-10T19:17:00.000-07:002006-06-10T19:17:00.000-07:00Athena, look at what my buddy GU wrote..what the h...Athena, look at what my buddy GU wrote..what the hell is he smoking???<BR/>The report discussed the San Diego region's status as one of America's least-affordable housing markets. It said the cost of a median-priced home locally now equals about 10 times the median household income.<BR/><BR/>"Despite the lack of affordability, G.U. Krueger, a housing economist in Irvine, said sound economic fundamentals will prevent the region's home prices from dropping steeply.<BR/><BR/>“It is really hard for me to believe that home prices will drop dramatically when economic growth is still relatively good in San Diego,” Krueger said."<BR/>http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20060609-9999-1b9real.htmlmoonvalleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12058991195867052788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149990572169507792006-06-10T18:49:00.000-07:002006-06-10T18:49:00.000-07:00awesome! can't wait to hear the details. I am fe...awesome! can't wait to hear the details. I am feeling unmotivated.Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149990417361723342006-06-10T18:46:00.000-07:002006-06-10T18:46:00.000-07:00well, about the Eastside of Sonoma and being all u...well, about the Eastside of Sonoma and being all un pc and all..we're currently renting up in the hill above the Mission Inn. Every single one of our neighbors has been here for at least 15 years, except for the people building the monster house across the road. We moved here from 2nd Street East, and though one has to drive past some funk on 12 to get here, once on the hill it's beautiful and private. We were talking RE with one of our neighbors, an old timey Italian who owns a good chunk of this valley, a couple of hotels and a ton of rental properties and he just shook his head about what's going on. He figures a lot of these people just aren't going to make it.A lot of them are already struggling, sez he. Of course his family bought it all up when it was like a nickle an acre, now <I>that's</I> the way to make money on rental properties. BTW, I heard again that the place we used to rent, which was sold to the developer who was going to build mc mansions on it, still hasn't closed yet. Wonder if someone's getting cold feet. That's the sorrow of the Eastside, living cheek by jowl with some butt ugly house, paying through the nose for no privacy, even if when one first bought there were nothing but pristine fields around one. Who will tear down the flipper cities once they fail to sell, or will all those McCastles turn into boarding houses?<BR/>PS..that former neighbor who's buying the flipper house is coming up here tonight. I will have dirt to report.moonvalleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12058991195867052788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149879234814726902006-06-09T11:53:00.000-07:002006-06-09T11:53:00.000-07:00"East Side Sonoma is the mexican free zone..."...i...<I>"East Side Sonoma is the mexican free zone..."</I><BR/><BR/>...ironically a stone's throw from General Vallejo's barracks and the Mexican mission. Vestiges of that first white-flight movment, the Bear Flag revolt?<BR/><BR/>I think you're dead-on. Unspoken but true, I'm sure that applies to Marin as well, and probably accounts for disparaging views of Novato.marine_explorerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03092782038855356359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149875842333382242006-06-09T10:57:00.000-07:002006-06-09T10:57:00.000-07:00Reskeptic... I am going to be real blunt, and very...Reskeptic... I am going to be real blunt, and very un-pc. East Side Sonoma is the mexican free zone. So people pay a premium for that service.Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149870684091475422006-06-09T09:31:00.000-07:002006-06-09T09:31:00.000-07:00Oversupply: the builders can debate about it, but ...Oversupply: the builders can debate about it, but the effects are already here.<BR/>Comparing a bunch of Sonoma co. mls listings yesterday to my experience last fall, I'm generally seeing much more house for the same price, with many recent reductions (according to Ziprealty). The exception appears to be eastide Sonoma, aka "The New Sausalito™"--sans bay views of course! What is it about that place?<BR/><BR/>The recent buzz about Toll and other builder stock strikes me as rather late. Judging by trading volume, it looks like somebody hit the exits in January-Feb. When Joe Six-Pack wakes up, he'll already be shorn; dot-bomb redux.marine_explorerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03092782038855356359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149857773820653642006-06-09T05:56:00.000-07:002006-06-09T05:56:00.000-07:00i how does toll explain the stock purchases to his...i how does toll explain the stock purchases to his shareholders? didn't he dump millions of shares last year...while pumping up the market? essentially selling most of his stake to the bagholders who are now having their stockprice inflated by repurchases?and could perhaps the corporation be better served by having cash in hand during a market crisis?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149833842504521052006-06-08T23:17:00.000-07:002006-06-08T23:17:00.000-07:00hey 'thena-- alas, your mad Photoshop skillz are l...hey 'thena-- alas, your mad Photoshop skillz are likely to outstrip mine.<BR/><BR/>But I think you hit a nerve... the true renter envy is not a jealousy borne of paying a property manager versus paying a (probably nervous) bank collections center, but rather, a misplaced desire to be a fly on wall at Bob Toll's, or General Lyon's, or Vahak Hovnanian's dinner table, when those many eyes might sense the extra beads of perspiration that betray the warm gas that emanates and resonates so confidently. The poor insect doesn't give proper appreciation to waveforms like "effing Fed" and "shi-itbag-flippers," at least not like you and I could. What a pity...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149832157218343782006-06-08T22:49:00.000-07:002006-06-08T22:49:00.000-07:00Love the bare foot idea. Can you do that graphic? ...Love the bare foot idea. Can you do that graphic? I am creatively challenged! I tried having the monopoly guy pulling the houses out of his pockets... but well, like I said... I am creatively challenged. :-/ <BR/><BR/>I think these guys need to all get together and talk... Toll says there is an oversupply, to put it mildly... oh to be sitting within earshot when he puts it bluntly... and that guy from coldwell banker etc.. insists there is not enough supply to meet demand. The realtor in Sonoma claims there are many qualified buyers who are just put off by crappyass houses...<BR/><BR/>personally... I think my money is on Robert Toll... he seems to at least be trying to tell Wall Street how it is... I have a feeling he knows it is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better, hence rolling the truth is sugar.Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-1149827711716390032006-06-08T21:35:00.000-07:002006-06-08T21:35:00.000-07:00Great graphic, athena, as always.I guess the only ...Great graphic, athena, as always.<BR/><BR/>I guess the only embellishment I can imagine is a great big bare foot, with ink on it pledging allegiance to TollBrothers or a HomebuilderIndex, as it painfully treads on all that excess Monopoly(tm) inventory a second before the light goes on.<BR/><BR/>Ah... I loves me da metaphorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com