tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post5701410129800945553..comments2023-10-20T07:59:45.124-07:00Comments on Sonoma Housing Bubble : Sonoma County Outlook 2007Athenahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-15833433173432585602007-03-07T10:18:00.000-08:002007-03-07T10:18:00.000-08:00I think we have a problem.If I recall, there are o...I think we have a problem.<BR/><BR/>If I recall, there are only about 125 medical schools and under 1 million physicians in the United States.<BR/><BR/>How are we going to crank out enough doctors so that all of Sonoma's population would be doctors?<BR/><BR/>Not to mention the whole place would have to become one huge medical industrial complex kind of place.<BR/><BR/>And every one of them would have to be convinced to buy grossly overpriced real estate.<BR/><BR/>No more wine business (wow, athena, you've really "pulled the cork out of wine country real estate"). <BR/><BR/>No more tourism. <BR/><BR/>Sad.sf jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03447317646441624382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-68454167746126060272007-03-07T09:52:00.000-08:002007-03-07T09:52:00.000-08:00correct slinky... yet here in Sonoma they claim it...correct slinky... yet here in Sonoma they claim it is the outdated hospital that makes it hard to recruit doctors. I think someone is not paying attention. That whole everyone wants to live here thing is getting really old. When Doctor's can't afford to live here you are going to have bigger problems than just an outdated hospital.Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-61464453271250680902007-03-07T09:12:00.000-08:002007-03-07T09:12:00.000-08:00Subprime is getting shut off. HELOC's on AltA coul...Subprime is getting shut off. HELOC's on AltA could be next for tightening. Once all this exotic financing gets harder to qualify for, I think we will start to see more serious price drops. But the total drop would have to be at least 40% to even get close to alignment with incomes, so I wonder how far we'll go. <BR/><BR/>If banks go back to lending @ 3x gross income, and the median HHI is around $60,000, hmmm....Lisahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00536167771093109826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-84160723984421734912007-03-07T01:49:00.000-08:002007-03-07T01:49:00.000-08:00It's no surprise that your average teacher can't a...It's no surprise that your average teacher can't afford to buy property, but it's just mind-blowing that your average physician can't afford property either.Slinkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00219326179865124676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-28373376189407809412007-03-06T16:34:00.000-08:002007-03-06T16:34:00.000-08:00Looks like the report is going with what CAR claim...Looks like the report is going with what CAR claims is the median for Sonoma County: $545,000<BR/><BR/>Additionally, using this figure and comparing it to the incomes in Sonoma County: <BR/><BR/>The minimum family income needed to purchase a medianpriced<BR/>home in Sonoma County is $133,311, based on an average effective mortgage interest rate of 6.33 percent and assuming a 20 percent downpayment. <BR/><BR/>The approximate median <B><I>family income </B></I>in Sonoma County in 2005 was<BR/>$58,330.<BR/><BR/>Where is all this MONEY that lives here hmm? This isn't even the average income for an individual... this is FAMILY median income.Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-30467343497034527522007-03-06T16:26:00.000-08:002007-03-06T16:26:00.000-08:00AthenaQuick question -- what is the median house p...Athena<BR/><BR/>Quick question -- what is the median house price on which the $133k salary is based.<BR/><BR/>BobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-43763879748712929102007-03-06T11:36:00.000-08:002007-03-06T11:36:00.000-08:00WFS- you are welcome here anytime and no reference...WFS- you are welcome here anytime and no reference to Marinite shall ever be deemed off topic. As far as I'm concerned we can talk about him every day, all day until he comes back. <BR/><BR/>Tom- well, no, they didn't want to really talk about the impact of the housing industry on the overall economy. They tried their best all over the report to make things sound not all that bad, so I had to pick and choose from the actual facts as opposed to the cheerleader analysis in the report. They did do a good job with that 88% increase in the housing construction related jobs though... and if you do the math... <BR/><BR/>* look at the breakdown of jobs here, <BR/><BR/>* and the median income <BR/><BR/>* and the fact that Sonoma County is 10% higher in cost to do business than anywhere else in the US <BR/><BR/>* and the fact that high paying jobs continue to leave, <BR/><BR/>* and even the slim pickens of low paying jobs have seen only meager job growth, <BR/><BR/>* and we are the second most unaffordable place to live trailing only Santa Barbara... <BR/><BR/>that should start the death rattle for those living in their delusional bubble...Athenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15944962059749126687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-523167150962216022007-03-06T06:53:00.000-08:002007-03-06T06:53:00.000-08:00Thank you,athena.no surprises here for me.one driv...Thank you,athena.no surprises here for me.one driver for the high end in west county has been retirees selling their home and bringing a pile of cash.i suspect that to ease up a bit with the changes in the market.also i think that economic report doesn't take into account the influence of real estate and constructon on our economy in a realistic way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22535876.post-48866573246550936182007-03-06T01:42:00.000-08:002007-03-06T01:42:00.000-08:00Hey Athena,I'm a refugee from Marinite's blog.I mi...Hey Athena,<BR/><BR/>I'm a refugee from Marinite's blog.<BR/>I miss his excellent offerings.<BR/>He has always been fair and reasonable.<BR/><BR/>He gave me insight when all the media was saying "jump in before it's too late!".<BR/><BR/>Shame on the Marin "Independent" Journal!<BR/>Shame on KRON etc.<BR/><BR/>I didn't jump in and I have been saving my dimes.<BR/><BR/>Athena, thanks for your work on this.<BR/><BR/>Marinite, thanks for all of your hard work too.<BR/><BR/>Sorry for the "Off Topic", I just wanted to thank you both.<BR/><BR/>I'm waiting for a sane housing market.<BR/><BR/>I will buy when the asking prices are in accord with the fundamentals.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com