Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Deja News?

For all who have said, or heard someone say "Real Estate Only Goes Up" or "You Can't Lose" or "It Won't Happen Here" or "This Time It Is Different"...etc.

Stolen Shamelessly from Desidude at Ben's Place

"Real Estate News, Part 6 Nov 21 1990
Home prices in California will decline another 5% to 10% in thecontinuation of a “buyer’s strike”, according to Kenneth Rosen,chairman of the Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UCBerkeley. Rosen believs a revival will not occur until 1992.

He blames the current real estate slump on the “totally unsound practice”of government and consumers ringing up record debt loads in the 1980s.

[San Francisco Chronicle]With a few exceptions, the real estate market in most U.S. cities isflat. Market values are stagnant and sales volume has slowed.

[SanJose Mercury News]52. Auctioneers advertise exclusive estates in Menlo Park, with minimum bids40% off the current bank appraised value . Custom homesites reflectdiscounts 47% off the current bank appraised value.

[Wall Street Journal]54. With recession looming, would-be buyers ask themselves: Isn’t this a risky time to put all our savings into a home purchase? We end up with no savings, and higher monthly expenses at the worst time imaginable–the start of a national economic downturn.

To counter this, aggressivereal estate marketeers are offering 1990s creative financing: Nothingdown. No closing costs. No transfer taxes. Plus, they’re offering newreverse-lease options that allow you to buy now, but pack a parachute incase you want to bail out later.

[San Jose Mercury News]55. Builder advertises: $60,000 Price Reduction! Originally $485,000. Now$425,000. Sorrento Estates. Buy this weekend, receive a new Dodge Caravan. ]"


At 4/04/2006 07:41:00 PM , Blogger Bubble-X said...

Hmmm... It's so funny to read this after reading some realtors being quoted as saying "the market is stabilizing."

It seems that at least past of the RE community is even having trouble denying what is getting more obvious ever minute!

At 4/04/2006 10:43:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

hahahaha..after reading this I want to go play some RC Hammer music.."can't touch that"..hey, didn't he lose his parachute pants on RE in the early 90's? Whoopsy daisy!

At 4/04/2006 11:03:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

bahahaha... you mean MC Hammer? I think they outlawed parachute pants didn't they? :-D Or they oughta.

This kind of stuff IS fun to read. I think with every run-up of a market that produces magical thinking in the masses the disbelievers always have a little bit of fear that what if this time it IS different? It never is different... but it never feels quite right until there is proof.

At 4/05/2006 12:36:00 AM , Blogger moonvalley said...

Right..MC..Getting him confused with the cola.
His wife is an RE agent.

At 4/05/2006 12:39:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

of COURSE she is! :-D Speaking of real estate agents... how many do you think we have?

At 4/05/2006 12:58:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

bwahahahaha... ok... MV... did you see Friday's paper? I am just getting around to perusing through it and our favorite agent has a few new words for the ad...

:-D says "WHAT BUBBLE?"

Then says: "The REAL ESTATE BUBBLE- you know, everyone's talking about it.

THIS is SONOMA, there's no better town and no better time."

LOL... :-D

What did I say?

Our town = Promised Land
Our people = Chosen People

oh and the agent says: "I'm not afraid of bubbles."

no... but how about your buyers? Are they still on strike?

At 4/05/2006 01:08:00 PM , Blogger sf jack said...

athena -

If by "we" you mean California, then the answer is 500,000 realtors - or one in 50 adults.

I surely think that's enough.

At 4/05/2006 01:32:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Thanks SFJack... we yes as in CA and then I would love to know just how many Sonoma has too...

off re agent topic... but I stole this from Fred at Ben's Blog

Comment by fred hooper
2006-04-05 07:21:53

OK boys and girls, today’s lesson:

1. Record high real estate prices fueled by record low interest rates
2. Record high levels of speculation by investors & 2nd-home buyers
3. Record high consumer debt
4. Record low savings rate
5. Record high level of home-ownership
6. Extremely lax lending practices
7. Rising interest rates, ARM resets coming soon
8. New Home building continues at record levels
9. Rapid increases in new and used inventory on the market
10. Sales of new and resale homes on the decline.

Nope, no bubble here. All is well. Things are returning to normal. Now is a great time to buy. Homebuilder stocks up today. Everyone’s happy. Have a nice day

At 4/05/2006 02:08:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

This was too good to not post. My daughter just called from school to tell me that in one of her classes the topic today centered around real estate. Apparently one very eager boy (18) said that real estate is like the best investment of all time, because you can't lose and it never goes down.

I asked my child if she popped his bubble for him... she proudly proclaimed that she did, but the best pop with bubble ALL over his face came from another girl in the class who's dad is a high profile and well respected local real estate agent.

She matter of factly smashed his bubble, calling him a moron and saying that real estate IS going down... right this second, and it wasn't going to start inching back up until they are likely OUT of college, half way through law school or in grad school.

I was so proud. Can I just tell you?


At 4/05/2006 04:40:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

Whoa! Of course there are honest people in the RE field who do know what's going on and those are the ones we all will deal with in future.
The problem has been the hobbyist factor,or people who have run to RE as a last resort when jobs tank. I know a few of them myself. Probably the most toxic combination are those who leave my busiiness (movies) for RE..give them a wide berth. Of course up here in Sonoma there most likely aren't any but back down in out!

At 4/05/2006 04:54:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

my favorites MV are the ones who never made time to be educated in anything, always took what was easy... and never did anything to get where they want to be and thought RE would be their ticket to the good life... easy money.

Seriously, who wants to part with BUCKETS of money working with someone who probably has never made any?

BIG pet peeve!!!

At 4/05/2006 07:53:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At 4/05/2006 07:54:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

Well, I have been out buying a whole lot of new furniture for the new place and listening around while I'm at it. A mortgage broker friend, one of the good guys and someone I respect a lot told me today that it would be a good idea to wait as far as house buying goes. They couldn't tell me that I was "missing the boat hurry up they're not making anymore land". They thought waiting was basically smart. We've gotten a great deal on the new place, paying the same amount for a 900k house. One thing I have discovered out there, and that is if you've got the cash,people are willing to deal.

At 4/05/2006 07:58:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

oh heck ya they are! My daughter and I are going to be looking for a bigger place closer to summer...

heard from a friend today that she talked a friend out of getting a HELOC and said that it was "not a good time" to do such a thing. but then again this is one of those friends who doesn't spend money she doesn't have anyway, so I would expect as much from her.

Have heard nothing yet on that situation with the local mortgage broker taking advantage of little old ladies and giving out suicide loans he knows they can't afford.

But I think Montini ought to be persuaded to give back that $$$... lest their affiliation with a broker who gives such fraudulent loans become something unattractive about them...

At 4/07/2006 06:50:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

athena,if you know of a mortgage broker making fraudulent loan,or taking advantage of the elderly,please go to the DA. it is an election year and the DA would love someone jucy to chew on,if you have a lousy DA give the info to the most competent challenger for the job..let them make a stink about it...pretty please.

At 4/07/2006 08:43:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

I do know of at least one... but the thing is... the teeny little inner circle are big enablers of each other... looking the other way to protect their own. Even now, you should hear the stooges on the hospital district issue... they are trying to say that "no hospital" will mean property values will go down. WTF? Come ON...!!! these guys KNOW that property values ARE coming down... and they won't look at the real reason why.. .because they are their friends. Look at the local paper... do you see any ads that aren't from the real estate, mortgage, or building, construction, home maintenance industries? Look at it online... what are all the advertisements? Come on... we aren't the only rocket scientists in the state are we? If I were DA you better believe I would still be able to see all of this and KNOW how it was getting funded and KNOW who was doing the funding and fudging of the appraisals and loans... but you don't hear a PEEP out of anyone in the whole flipping county on this issue. The only reporting on real estate at all is just the infomercials printed by getting lame quotes from those in the industry. this goes for the Sonoma Valley press as well as the whole county press. All in bed together and the DA I am sure is those three little monkeys all rolled into one, see no fraud, speak no fraud, hear no fraud... lalalalala... fingers in his ears.


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