A View from the Road to Housing Hell...
Sonoma County home sales fell in September from the month before. Single-family home re-sales were down -15.5% from August, off -40.1% year-over-year.
Condo sales were off -41.7% year-over-year.
Sep 06: 366
Aug 06: 433
Sep 05: 611
Days on Market:
Sep 06: 93
Aug 06: 92
Sep 05: 62
Sep 06: $565,500 third month in a row year-over-year appreciation has been negative.
Aug 06: $575,000
Sep 05: $610,000
stats from: rereport.com
The realtor's website claims that this 40% decline is totally normal and consistent with seasonal sales fluctuations. I laughed. That 40% is YEAR over YEAR which means it is even lower than last year's apparently normal seasonal decline.
The realtor also said that if buyers are waiting for more price declines they aren't going to happen, because the economy is good and we aren't losing jobs. Apparently this realtor doesn't pay attention as last reports indicated that Sonoma County is losing many more jobs than expected and is definitely being harder hit than the rest of the state. + the jobs lost in the real estate industrial complex in Sonoma County is piling up the body count.
Remember that part of 1 in 6 jobs in the county being in the REIC? Remember that part of the county has lost 1,300 of those jobs in the three month period ending June 30th?
They apparently haven't finished county the bodies from June 30th to present... So far it is predicted the county will lose 2,000 more REIC jobs. tsk tsk... to that realtor that says our economy is doing great and there will be no major job losses or serious price declines.
Sit down, hold on and get ready for the downhill plunge from this real estate roller-coaster. 2007 brings home the bulk of the toxic loan resets and 2/3rds of our county are holding these bend-over loan products. We are talking about the biggest margin call in history.
In the words of Steve Cochrane, an analyst with Moody's Economy.com, which prepared the study on employment in the county's housing sector.... "It's going to be painful."