Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Monday, October 16, 2006

A View from the Road to Housing Hell...

Sonoma County home sales fell in September from the month before. Single-family home re-sales were down -15.5% from August, off -40.1% year-over-year.

Condo sales were off -41.7% year-over-year.

Home Sales:
Sep 06: 366
Aug 06: 433
Sep 05: 611

Days on Market:
Sep 06: 93
Aug 06: 92
Sep 05: 62

Median Price:
Sep 06: $565,500 third month in a row year-over-year appreciation has been negative.
Aug 06: $575,000
Sep 05: $610,000

stats from:

The realtor's website claims that this 40% decline is totally normal and consistent with seasonal sales fluctuations. I laughed. That 40% is YEAR over YEAR which means it is even lower than last year's apparently normal seasonal decline.

The realtor also said that if buyers are waiting for more price declines they aren't going to happen, because the economy is good and we aren't losing jobs. Apparently this realtor doesn't pay attention as last reports indicated that Sonoma County is losing many more jobs than expected and is definitely being harder hit than the rest of the state. + the jobs lost in the real estate industrial complex in Sonoma County is piling up the body count.

Remember that part of 1 in 6 jobs in the county being in the REIC? Remember that part of the county has lost 1,300 of those jobs in the three month period ending June 30th?

They apparently haven't finished county the bodies from June 30th to present... So far it is predicted the county will lose 2,000 more REIC jobs. tsk tsk... to that realtor that says our economy is doing great and there will be no major job losses or serious price declines.

Sit down, hold on and get ready for the downhill plunge from this real estate roller-coaster. 2007 brings home the bulk of the toxic loan resets and 2/3rds of our county are holding these bend-over loan products. We are talking about the biggest margin call in history.

In the words of Steve Cochrane, an analyst with Moody's, which prepared the study on employment in the county's housing sector.... "It's going to be painful."


At 10/16/2006 02:54:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

hmm looking for the bright side...maybe the price of "escorts" will go down as the result of the influx of ex real estate salesfolk.they have nice teeth and shiny hair,and using those big suvs for an office would cut down on overhead.

At 10/16/2006 03:39:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Did you read about that woman in the east bay who was running a high priced "escort" type of service? She is a real estate agent and rumor was there was some cross over recruitment going on.

At 10/16/2006 04:55:00 PM , Anonymous re_lurker said...

"The realtor's website claims that this 40% decline is totally normal and consistent with seasonal sales fluctuations."

Oh sure, and no doubt Baghdad Bob is in Sonoma square, giving his now-famous press conference that "all is well".

At 10/16/2006 05:09:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

"femmes de maison" you betcha!yeah,the gal got in trouble for soliciting at the claremont country club when a wife found a brochure as ,i recall...that realtor may not know what y-o-y means,but he does know what a YOYO is cause he are one.i was informed ,again,today,that the market is "rebalancing" and price gains will recommence in 2 or three months,the commissars in russia were never this quick and consistent with the party response was once again "man you oughtta pick up some of those bargains right away!" my daddy always said to use irony with stupid people,rather than derision,they are less likely to try to hit you.

At 10/16/2006 11:03:00 PM , Blogger Marinite said...

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