Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Notices of Default Cause for Concern

So says Ms. Appleton-Young. Go ahead and have yourself a little panic attack. The experts have spoken.

"The steady increase in the number of people who have missed mortgage payments and received notices of default is cause for concern, Appleton-Young said."

"The number of California homeowners who fell behind on mortgage payments more than doubled during the last three months of 2006, pushing defaults higher than at any other time in the past eight years, according to an analysis by DataQuick Information Systems that was released last month."

'"You do have people, especially those who purchased in 2006 and 2005, who missed the big cushion of appreciation, who could get into trouble," she said.

"Scraping together enough money to buy a house was particularly difficult for first-time buyers.
People purchasing their first home were four times more likely to take out a loan with nothing down than repeat buyers, according to the report. About 40 percent of first-time buyers opted for loans without down payments."'

"But even as many first-time buyers showed a willingness to take on higher debt, the overall percentage of first-time buyers fell, reaching its second-lowest level on record."

"Still, Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, pointed out that buyers are taking on a high debt load at the same time that foreclosure rates are rising."

'"Buyers are really straining," said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto. "The prices have really become unaffordable in a traditional sense and the only way some people are able to buy is to become more heavily indebted and put less down. That's a scary sign."'

"The market is going to have to find a way to add new buyers," said Ed Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

"That's another symptom of a market gone awry."

The report also found that sellers profited less in 2006 than in 2005. The median net cash gain dropped 8.4 percent the first decline in nine years.

"As economists are scouring data on the housing market, searching for evidence that the market is bouncing back, the report offered little to celebrate, Leamer said. "We're looking for some signs that the problems in the housing market are behind us," he said. "Nothing in this report supports that."'

"There could be trouble ahead in California's housing market as buyers are going deeper into debt while sellers are seeing less profit."

"More than 21 percent of buyers last year took out mortgages with no down payment, soaring from just 4.5 percent in 2000, according to the California Association of Realtors, the industry's trade group."

"The findings suggest that buyers are taking on more debt at a time when the market both statewide and in the Bay Area is slowing. The number of homes sold in the Bay Area dropped 19 percent last year compared with 2005."


At 2/07/2007 06:11:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

More evidence Einstein was right when he claimed that the second infinity was human stupidity.has anyone seen a pic of ms appleton-young,i picture her as being a little wider between the eyes than Paris Hilton...albeit less picky about who she will $crew.

At 2/09/2007 09:49:00 AM , Anonymous marinite said...

"The steady increase in the number of people who have missed mortgage payments and received notices of default is cause for concern, Appleton-Young said."

But how can that be? The CAR says California affordability is like 27% or something! Oh, that's right, they redefined how the calculate affordability so that they get these higher numbers. Real affordability, as calculated by the time-tested "older" formula, is more like 5-6%.

If foreclosures and NODs are so "surprisingly" high and heading higher, maybe the CAR should re-adopt the older, time-tested method of calculating affordability. Duh!

At 2/09/2007 10:00:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

oh but that would make the 500,000 realtwhores in California start to panic. They have to keep an open road for the remaining greater fools who just don't know they are stupid.

Isn't that funny that the stupid rarely recognize it? I think being stupid ought to be immediately painful, like an electric shock so the stupid learn to associate the pain with their actions as opposed to blaming it on the messenger.

At 2/09/2007 09:06:00 PM , Blogger Kurt said...

"Isn't that funny that the stupid rarely recognize it?"

And it's not like they weren't warned. If they didn't lose their shirts in the dot-bomb, they have their chance now. "If at first you don't succeed..."

(Btw, what's with blogger here using my first name?)

At 2/09/2007 09:14:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

grrr... Kurt- sorry about that. I foolishly "upgraded" (rolling my eyes) to the "new" blogger. Duped into thinking it would solve the lame technical issues with posting. Looks like it really is just a datamining ploy from google. They don't have enough terabytes of user data to be able to sell to their advertisers because people searching for porn on the search site don't log in to do it.

so they are trying to find ways to make you log in with your google account. :-/ That is really the only thing that has changed- it forces you to log in with your google account as opposed to the blogger account. It allows them to mine the data for where you are going and what you are doing, and develop the patterns for your clicks so they can sell more to their advertisers. Basically, the information you shared in your google profile... age, location, gender, etc... is used to profile your online behavior and allow them to predict monetization behavior. What do you click on? How long do you stay there? Did you purchase anything? etc... This is nothing more than a ploy to get more users to sign up for google accounts so they can sell more advertising.

grrr.... anyway, wish I could switch back to the old blogger.

At 2/09/2007 10:55:00 PM , Anonymous marin_explorer said...

Nice thing to do to your user base. I'll use an alias from now on--and maybe change my blog accts.

At 2/10/2007 10:17:00 AM , Blogger Marinite said...

Now I definately won't change over to Blogger2. Dang!

At 2/10/2007 10:35:00 AM , Blogger Marinite said...

Wow. Now I can no longer log into my blog to make a post. To make a post I am being forced to upgrade to blogger2. What to do, what to do...

At 2/10/2007 11:58:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

well... if it makes you feel better mining user data was always their plan. The world of internet advertising depends on highly accurate BI (business intelligence) data. Advertisers want to pay to reach a specific target- and they want to be able to validate that target market actually exhibits purchase behavior. And by creating services that allows a data mining algorithm to identify and predict user patterns and can segment the targets they are able to deliver up advertising opportunities to paying customers.

The key is to develop massive quantities of user traffic. The did one thing, and one thing really well that allowed them to do just that. Search. Now they didn't invent the search engine. Portals long before have been doing that since the beginning of the internet. Criminy... Yahoo! started off as an index page by Jerry and David of everything that was on the internet at one time. That has never changed- but users also wanted content.

Google hit the market and simply reinvented the wheel in a simple way and did it very well. People flocked to them to look up everything they could come up with.

They got the traffic. They started charging $$$$ for advertising because they were the search darling. Nevermind that they didn't have any deep relationships with their users... that was temporary. They soon would start delivering all the same things MSN, Altavista, Yahoo! etc... had been doing since the beginning of internet time, and voila... their users would sign in. They would create profiles. They would mine every click, every service they used, how much they used it, if they shopped, if they blogged. If they blogged, shopped, emailed etc... what was their topic of interest? What is it people want to hear about, learn about, buy? Even now, this blog... your blog... every place we leave comments while signed in their datamining programs use to develop user segments and try to predict behavior to better serve the paying advertiser. It really is genius... but that is the reason they are buying properties and then converting them to opportunites to force users to sign in. They have to... look at their stock price. For how long are they going to be the darling of wall street? As soon as the economy takes a targeted hit advertising will dry up unless a medium can offer up the most bang for the advertising buck. They need to be able to prove... "hey, we've got your customer right here, and we can deliver them to you and not your competitor." They need user data. They need solid predictive behavior data. Or eventually the wish click advertising dollars will stop and their stock price will tank.

sorry for the completely off topic lecture. ;-)

At 2/10/2007 03:00:00 PM , Anonymous marin_explorer said...

"For how long are they going to be the darling of wall street?

I have to admit, Google has created some pretty interesting/useful web apps, but just as many SV ventures, the hype often outpaces reality. As you explained so well, with slowing revenue growth, GOOG is sure to do everything to monetize their user base. Yet ironically, that's often what triggers a user trend to the next big thing. I've watched the rise and fall of many a Bay Area "darling", so I'm just a little amazed when people say "it's different this time". Right, and Apple will regain the business PC market. [/OT]

At 2/10/2007 03:09:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

heh... apple at least admits openly they don't want mainstream business. They say they want those who don't think like joe6pack. They want those who might just consider themselves a little weird, and the kind to openly defy pack mentality. They do own their user base. They don't need to go mainstream because there is no competition for their user base. It is firmly the un-mainstream consumer. Those who love a mac have no love for pc's and actively avoid them. They have targeted and marketed to a diehard customer base and are in no danger of losing them.

The ipod is for joe6pack. They laugh all the way to the bank because they aren't the only one delivering music content- but they are the only one to be able to collect $$$ for it because they made it simple, easy, one clickable for Joe6pack who doesn't care or need to know how it works. Click and listen... people are so emotionally attached to their music... if their ipod craps out, no problem. Buy another one. captive audiences. That is what apple has done well.

LOL... welcome to tech talk saturday. ;-)

At 2/10/2007 05:16:00 PM , Anonymous marin_explorer said...

"They want those who might just consider themselves a little weird...

...who will pay a premium for the "Apple lifestyle". (When I walk into the Apple Store I feel like I've joined a cult) Yet, maybe it works for Apple better than going mainstream and competing with PCs. I do give them creds for brilliantly marketing their iPod.

Tech talk aside, I enjoy reading Tom Stone's views from the street. Despite the optimist buzz around SFBay, these hints of trouble ahead suggest how far people are actually stretched. It's truly frightening; I'm glad to be solvent.

At 2/10/2007 05:20:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Me too! And glad to be renting for what amounts to half of a week's pay and saving.


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