Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Friday, March 16, 2007

Lazy Ass Reporting IV

What does the reporter over at the Press Democrat have for us today? Let me give you a hint...
"Sonoma County home prices dipped again in February, yet there are signs that prices may be leveling off."

"Hidden within the numbers is evidence that the county's housing market is slowly lurching into balance with the spring home buying season approaching."

"The market is very different than it was three months ago," said Suzanne O'Brien, an agent with Prudential California Realty in Santa Rosa. "I think the buyers are ready to make an offer on good value. Three months ago, they were just real gun-shy. I think there's been enough shakeout in overpriced listings."

"Overall, prices have dropped 11 percent since the market peaked in August 2005.In January, the median resale price in the county was $545,000, down from December's $570,000."

And the lender meltdown hasn't even begun to spin our heads around yet. Stay tuned... these prices are nothing but drops in a bucket.

"The February median resale price was $550,000, down 1.1 percent from a year ago, according to the monthly Press Democrat sales report. The eighth consecutive price decline extended the county's longest housing slump in 14 years."

Schadenfreude- those that played are just now able to see the tip of the iceberg dead ahead. The REIC is only rearranging the deck chairs and handing out sheet music to the band on their doomed titanic of an industry. Buh-bye easy money loser lender, realtwhore buttholes! Good riddance!

"Sales continued to fall, down 12.2 percent from a year ago. Inventory levels remain high, with a six-month supply of homes on the market."

Sonoma County Sales: 252
MLS Listings: 3160

Supply of Homes on the Market: 12.53 months supply
(listings divided by sales- really lazy ass reporters, it is not that hard. give it a try next time before taking a dump and printing it in the paper.)

"This is what we mean by a market flattening out in terms of price appreciation. Given the normal month-to-month wobbling of the median, prices just couldn't look much flatter than this," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

"To some extent, today's market is the result of buyers and sellers locking horns, refusing to give in to the other side's idea of what a house is worth."

"You're trying to price your property based on what the competition is going to be," said Karl Bundesen, owner of Century 21 Bundesen Realty in Petaluma. "I don't see new listings chasing the market down right now. It's pretty flat."

"While homes that were put on the market last year continue to languish, new listings are beginning to sell faster, local brokers say. The newest sellers have come to grips with the housing slump and are pricing their homes in line with current conditions, a step that reduces the chance they will be forced to cut prices later."

Sonoma County Sales: 252
Sonoma County MLS listings: 3160
Months Supply Getting Old on the Market: 12.53

"When Jim Rohde puts his Santa Rosa home on the market next week, he will ask $899,000, comparable to similar houses on the market in his section of the upscale Fountaingrove area."

"I wanted to make sure that I was at the right spot. That reflects reality out there," said the former computer software company owner.

"Open houses are full of people looking for homes right now. They're starting to write offers. They're not waiting anymore," Bundesen said.

"A year ago, Rohde couldn't sell the home for $989,000 and pulled it off the market after six months without an offer. Now he hopes to sell within a month."I really am optimistic," he said."

"The wide gap between new listings and sales narrowed for the seventh straight month, a sign that buyers are gradually chipping away at the supply of homes on the market."

Sonoma County Sales: 252
Sonoma County MLS listings: 3160
Months Supply of houses languishing: 12.53

"Prices fell in five of the nine Bay Area counties in February, with Sonoma County experiencing the second-largest decline, behind Contra Costa County."

"Sonoma County has been one of the Bay Area's weakest housing markets since the housing slump began in fall 2005. A primary reason is the sizable gap between incomes and prices, which makes homes less affordable."

Facts at a Glance
* The median price of a home is still unaffordable for more than half of Sonoma County families.

* The minimum family income needed to purchase a medianpriced home in Sonoma County is $133,311, based on an average effective mortgage interest rate of 6.33 percent and assuming a 20 percent downpayment.

* The approximate median family income in Sonoma County in 2005 was $58,330.

* In December 2005, only seven percent of households in Sonoma County could afford the median-priced home.

* Sonoma County is the second least affordable county in the state, trailing only Santa Barbara.

* Moody’s also estimates that the median income-earning household could only afford to buy a house priced at 46% of the median sales price in the second quarter of 2006.

* Percentage of Sonoma County home buyers choosing some form of I/O, Negative amortizing and adjustable-rate mortgages (this includes subprime, Alt-A & Prime)

2003 - 36.8%
2004 - 59.4%
2005 - 69%


At 3/16/2007 05:01:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

So glad you blogged on this. I saw it this morning. What a load o' crap, begosh and begorrah. What the hell kind of Kool-Aid are they drinking over there. What utter and complete shite!

At 3/16/2007 09:56:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2year inventory by the end of july.with the new lending standards requiring that borrowers demonstrate an ability to repay their loans,this market is toast.i just love that $889k price on the fountaingrove the fountain full of kool-aid? is it a grove of money trees? is Mr bundesen delusional?prices have to drop to a level people can afford.repeat it over and over again until it sinks in.rephrase it 125x monthly rent,3.5x annual income,33% debt to income ratio.there are tens of billions worth of subprime and Alt-a loans stuck in the pipelines that are only salable at a deep discount...who is going to originate any more of these products knowing that they will lose $ doing so?we will also see a lot of office space come on the market soon because loan brokerages simply do not have the cash reserves to buyback more than a small fraction of the bad loans they have made.and even the best run shops have made some bad far as the press democrat they are a pack of craven incompetent shills with less self respect than the average crackhead.

At 3/16/2007 10:36:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lets see what was said 1 year ago..

At 3/16/2007 11:59:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

ps. the video is by Christopher Thornberg! ;-D heee!!! ;-D

Quote from Marinite in a post dated August 15, 2006 He posted about Mr. Thornberg leaving the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

"He has already proven himself to be one to "call it the way he sees it"; just check out this video(full length) Is Christopher Thornberg to the housing bubble what Shiller was to the tech stock bubble?"


At 3/17/2007 12:01:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

Hot Link to anon's :50 second clip of Thornberg's video


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