Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Friday, August 08, 2008

We're not even using the word "recovery" yet.

"“California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada combined represent 62 percent of all foreclosures on prime loans and nearly half of all subprime ARM foreclosures started in the first quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported.”'

"Among the California homes sold in June, 41.9 percent were foreclosure resales, compared with 6.6 percent a year earlier, DataQuick said."

'"We still have a ways to go before we can say the housing market has turned and showed improvement," said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist with the trade group. "And we're not even using the word recovery yet."'

In Sonoma County 414 homes sold in June.

Nearly half of all homes sold were owned by lenders or short sales.

Some 47 percent of houses sold in June were bank-owned or short sales, where homeowners sell for less than what they owe on mortgages to avoid foreclosure.

Lenders with foreclosed homes and homeowners in financial distress flood the market.

Real estate companies are dedicating agents and staff to what industry analysts say is an unprecedented wave of troubled properties.

The median-priced house in the region sold for $404,500 in June, down 33.1 percent from a year ago -- the 24th consecutive monthly decline.


At 8/08/2008 05:07:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

"And we're not even using the word recovery yet."

That's hardly a word to throw around before this one gets used: transparency. It strikes me the banks and Wall St. are scurrying around trying to cover their collective arses and appear to be solvent, albeit opaquely. Before any recovery, we need to know exactly what we're recovering from--and there's far more to come in terms of that reset graph. So I'll wager that we haven't begun to see what "systemic risk" looks like.

At 8/10/2008 07:58:00 AM , Anonymous Tom Stone said...

I took a look at the 12 steps for homedebtors,and I think the first one has been taken.

At 8/10/2008 09:49:00 AM , Blogger Lisa said...

So, basically home prices tripled during the bubble. Wild guess on my part, but I'm assuming incomes have remained somewhat flat -);

With the GSE's getting out of the AltA business by the end of the year, I think the most serious price drops lay ahead for the North Bay. Even Paulson flat out said Fannie and Freddie are the only functioning secondary market for mortgages, and if they don't want AltA loans, no one else will either.

Seriously, prime borrowers having to fully document their incomes and qualify under debt to income ratios, by in large won't be able to pay these prices. And with dreams of RE riches and the House ATM gone, how many will want want to??

That chart on Sonoma County price appreciation says it all....what a fiasco this is going to be.

At 8/10/2008 11:14:00 AM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

That chart on Sonoma County price appreciation says it all....what a fiasco this is going to be.

And yet, I'll guess that many people are simply clueless to what's underway. Doesn't the SP/LP seem rather high for a declining market? Perhaps that means those actually selling have cut their price dramatically? Nobody must be buying those sh*tbox Eichlers in E.Sonoma for $1M+, LOL.

I also suspect the real fiasco is transparent to the average consumer. I see a whole generation of people who built their lifestyle around credit expansion, and many hardly expect this era will come to a close. Everyone is trying their best to keep the credit party going, but what does this say about our society and economy which is built around a core of dwindling consumerism? It will be a rough ride down for some chasing the "good life". This tragicomedy be the subject of several academic theses in psychology, sociology, economics! LOL

At 8/10/2008 04:56:00 PM , Blogger Lisa said...

"Doesn't the SP/LP seem rather high for a declining market?"

It's another trick of the trade....the list price is the most recent list price, not the original. So if a house starts out at $700K, then drops to $600K and sells for $590K, it gets published that the house sold for 98% of asking price, when in reality it sold for 84% of original asking.

At 8/10/2008 09:21:00 PM , Anonymous Tom Stone said...

Lisa,real incomes actually declined,and the demographic changes were not there to cause any increase in prices except at the high end.I am seeing empty retail in good locations,and know of several people in Sebastopol who are coming to the realization that walking away is their best choice.Financing will be close to impossible in a year,just as the Alt-A resets really hit.I see the best case as a further 50% drop in prices countywide over the next 2 years,and more than that in 'good neighborhoods' because they have yet to experience their share of resets.Ugly.And this is if we experience a relatively benign correction,which I do not expect.I do know folks who expect a market recovery in nominal terms more quickly than I,and the ones I give some credence to expect hyperinflation starting in a couple of years.Our financial markets are facing a systemic breakdown worldwide and I have little confidence in the people who are in charge since they are demonstrably a pack of corrupt dingbats.


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