Speculators Get Spanked

(spotted by Ben) Not specific to Sonoma, but let all in the same boat be warned, this is how the story goes....


The Chicago Sun Times has a ‘warning’ for condo speculators. “Q: My husband and I were on a great path to being financially stable. Before we were married, we purchased a condo in the loop. After we were married for a year, we decided to buy a second condo for investment purposes, and this is where the trouble starts. We used $20,000 that we had saved and took a second mortgage on our unit for $20,000 to make up our down payment for condo number two. The real estate developer was offering one full year of mortgage, assessments and taxes as an incentive to buy, not to mention the unit was rented.”

“We thought this was a win/win situation. We would have two years minimum of no out of pocket costs, and at the end of that period or even before we can put the unit on the market and sell. The lender informed us that our credit score was good enough that they were going to approve us for a no doc loan. I now think this was a red flag for us to realize ‘this means you really can’t afford this loan, but we’re going to give it to you anyway.’”

“Well, here we are two years later, and I fear of what is to come. We put the unit on the market in April 2005 with no luck thus far. We first started the price out high, but by the summer we had came down to our exact purchase price. In November 2005, the tenants’ lease was over, so they left. Now we are in the last stage of the two-year period with no out of pocket costs. We are hopeful that we will get a tenant in the spring, but the rent does not cover all of the costs of owning the unit. We pay our current bills no problem, but once we have to start covering the costs of our second condo on our own, there is going to be no way.”
“Should I start talking to attorneys or debt consolidators? I just want to be pro-active in taking care of this costly mistake.”

“A: “About two years ago the speculative condo boom was at its peak. And now many speculators are about to find out that it doesn’t take a ‘crash’ or ‘breaking the bubble’ to create your own personal speculative crisis. All it takes is being unable to cover the carrying costs.”

“Now, I’m going to tell you exactly what I told a woman I know who mentioned she was in the same situation way back last summer. I told her then and there to reduce the offering price at least 10 percent below what other condos were going for in the same building, and to tell the realtors that she would offer them an extra incentive if they’d sell it by Labor Day. I told her that at least she’d be the first one out the door, before the rest of the crowd figured out the situation, and cut their prices too. And when she said she didn’t want to cut the price, I reminded her that the carrying costs for an extra six months would be equal to the price cut.”

“I told her then that I knew I would be writing about this phenomenon in six months, and now it’s starting to happen. If you can’t carry this property, then you have to bite the bullet and list it at such an attractive price that it is the first one that gets sold.”

“Now, by printing this response I know I’m going to get letters from other people accusing me of starting a ‘run’ on the condo market. So let me forestall that. I don’t think I have that power, to suddenly frighten people into selling. I think that the selling wave will happen inevitably because so many people are over-extended in the speculative condo market.”

Inman News has a similar tale. “DEAR BOB: A year ago, we bought a house in a new neighborhood one hour away from our current home. We were offered no mortgage payments for six months, but then we had to sell or refinance. When we tried to sell or rent the house, we learned the builder sold all 20 houses to other investors who were doing the same thing.”

“We sold the house for $90,000 less than our purchase price, and will have to come up with $33,000 cash to close the sale. Our monthly payments of $3,000 are way above the rental market of about $1,750 per month, plus a $100 monthly homeowner’s fee. Is there any way out of this nightmare?”

“A: After reading, and re-reading, your e-mail, I can’t figure out why you would buy such a rental house an hour away from your residence under those very unfavorable purchase terms requiring you to sell or refinance within just six months.”

“I don’t understand how the house could lose $90,000 in market value in just six months and why you have to come up with $33,000 cash to close the sale to your buyer. Obviously, you grossly overpaid for the house. The only good news is, because you purchased the house as an investment, you can claim a capital loss tax deduction. Please consult your tax adviser.”