Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Monday, March 20, 2006

Let's Talk Price...

Sonoma County MLS Listings: 1742

Listings with price reductions: 399
(in the last 30 days)


Sonoma Valley MLS Listings: 236

Listings with price reductions: 45
(in the last 30 days)

Under $1 million: 174
Over $1 million: 62

Homes Sold Week ending:

Sunday, March 20, 2005 = 8

Sunday, March 19, 2006 = 3

534 Joaquin Drive
$750,000
4 bdrms, 1971

880 Verano Avenue
$949,000,
4 bdrms 2861 sq. ft., 1977

340 West 5th Street
$900,000
2 bdrms, 797 sq. ft., 1952


There's been some talk about prices rising even though the air is leaking from the bubble... so lets talk price...

"If the housing market is weakening, why are home prices still rising?
You see, there are averages and there are averages. And when it comes to home prices, you need to know how they are calculated before you can conclude what's happening to the price of the average home."

"First of all, understand that average home prices that you may read about refer only to prices of those homes that were actually sold in a given month. They do not represent prices of all homes in the country."

"Even more important -- they are not the price of the same home measured from one month to the next. This is critical, for the way home prices are reported and analyzed, you'd think they were."

"The most common average price is the median price. This is the midpoint of all prices recorded in a given month. As you might imagine, the location of this midpoint is determined by the range of prices recorded."

"Thus, if more higher-priced homes are selling than lower-priced units, the median or geographic midpoint will move up accordingly. By the way, the same thing is true for another type of average -- the mean."

"Here's another thing to ponder: like new cars and trucks, many new homes have list prices. These are the prices that get recorded when the house is sold -- even if the seller has to sweeten the deal by offering such amenities as upgraded appliances, furniture, carpeting and the like.
And there's a lot of this discounting going on, according to a March 4 article in the Wall Street Journal."

"Finally, logic would tell you that when interest rates rise, the more expensive homes, whose buyers are not as likely to be as affected by stiffer borrowing requirements as buyers of less expensive homes, will sell faster than lower-priced models. So home prices are not defying the laws of gravity. They're only doing what comes naturally."

speaking of prices...

45 Sonoma properties with Reduced Prices





590 Fano Ln., Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/31/06 -- $869,000 to $839,000
Price Reduced: 03/10/06 -- $839,000 to $825,000
Days on Market: 80
Total Reduction: 44k


18762 Gillman, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $598,500 to $556,900
Days on Market: 68
Total Reduction: $41,600

1270 Brockman Ln, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/06/06 -- $1,275,000 to $1,225,000
Days on Market: 54
Total Reduction: $50k


724 Charles Van Damme Way, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/09/06 -- $1,599,000 to $1,580,000
Days on Market: 54
Total Reduction: 19k


661 Verano, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $799,000 to $775,000
Days on Market: 55
Total Reduction: 24k


157 Vineyard Cr. Sonoma, CA 95746
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $569,000 to $554,000
Days on Market: 105
Total Reduction: 15k

1346 E. Napa st. Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/10/06 -- $1,325,000 to $1,295,000
Days on Market: 118
Total Reduction: 30k

792 AUSTIN AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/14/06 -- $910,000 to $889,000
Price Reduced: 03/03/06 -- $889,000 to $859,000
Price Reduced: 03/16/06 -- $859,000 to $819,000
Days on Market: 54
Total Reduction: $91,000 about 10%

18423 RIVERSIDE DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/18/06 -- $650,000 to $575,000
Days on Market: 68
Total Reduction: $75,000 or about 11.5%

222 & 226 W SPAIN ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/10/06 -- $2,275,000 to $1,975,000
Days on Market: 58
Total Reduction: 300k round about 13%

193 GUADALUPE DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/07/06 -- $629,000 to $619,000
Price Reduced: 03/10/06 -- $619,000 to $599,900
Days on Market: 70
Total Reduction: $29,100 still a bit sticky

731 5TH ST E, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/03/06 -- $875,000 to $849,950
Price Reduced: 01/09/06 -- $849,950 to $849,444
Price Reduced: 02/01/06 -- $849,444 to $799,444
Price Reduced: 02/26/06 -- $799,444 to $789,000
Price Reduced: 03/13/06 -- $789,000 to $779,000
Days on Market: 83
Total Reduction: 96k about 10.98%

17660 17662 MIDDLEFIELD RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/02/06 -- $1,140,000 to $1,095,000
Days on Market: 96
Total Reduction: 45k round about... why bother?

304 DECHENE AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/26/06 -- $659,000 to $639,000
Price Reduced: 03/06/06 -- $639,000 to $625,000
Days on Market: 103
Total Reduction: 34k

1385 BAINBRIDGE LN, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/13/05 -- $710,000 to $675,000
Price Reduced: 01/03/06 -- $675,000 to $670,000
Price Reduced: 02/09/06 -- $670,000 to $669,000
Price Reduced: 03/01/06 -- $669,000 to $665,000
Price Reduced: 03/07/06 -- $665,000 to $655,000
Days on Market: 118
Total Reduction: 55k

535 MITCHELL WAY, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/16/06 -- $799,000 to $775,000
Price Reduced: 01/26/06 -- $775,000 to $750,000
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $750,000 to $739,000
Days on Market: 123
Total Reduction: 60k

16880 ESTRELLA DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/02/06 -- $997,000 to $950,000
Days on Market: 144
Total Reduction: 47k round about 4.7%

17930 SPRING ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/08/05 -- $499,000 to $484,000
Days on Market: 151
Total Reduction: 15k

16737 SONOMA, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/29/05 -- $635,000 to $599,000
Days on Market: 151
Total Reduction: 36k somewhere near 5.8%

832 2ND ST W, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/15/05 -- $545,000 to $525,000
Price Reduced: 01/13/06 -- $525,000 to $510,000
Days on Market: 151
Total Reduction: 35k in the ballpark of 6.5%

600 OMAN SPRINGS CIR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/08/05 -- $669,000 to $654,000
Price Reduced: 11/16/05 -- $654,000 to $639,000
Price Reduced: 01/09/06 -- $639,000 to $619,000
Days on Market: 153
Total Reduction: 50k in the neighborhood of 7.5%

846 848 3RD ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/18/05 -- $897,000 to $875,000
Price Reduced: 01/17/06 -- $875,000 to $850,000
Price Reduced: 03/15/06 -- $850,000 to $815,000
Days on Market: 153
Total Reduction: 82k about 9.15%

19177 ARNOLD DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/05/05 -- $625,000 to $599,999
Price Reduced: 02/15/06 -- $599,999 to $589,000
Days on Market: 155
First Reduction: 26k
Second Reduction: 10k not really the kind of hustle we like to see when the house has been sitting for 155 days.

17313 PARK AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/31/06 -- $599,999 to $589,999
Days on Market: 158
They relisted it on 2/16/06 trying to make it look like it has only been on the market 16 days Total Reduction: 10k ...

162 W AGUA CALIENTE RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/09/06 -- $368,000 to $364,900
Price Reduced: 02/21/06 -- $364,900 to $359,900
Days on Market: 163
First Reduction: round about 3k... baahahahahahahaha!
Second Reduction: 5k

842 W 2ND ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/06/05 -- $549,000 to $539,000
Days on Market: 165
Total Reduction: 10k let me get my bullhorn...

49 TEMELEC CIR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Looks like this one was re-listed
Price Reduced: 03/09/06 -- $510,000 to $485,000
Days on Market: N/A
Total Reduction: $25k


399 DAHLIA DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/31/06 -- $545,000 to $539,000
Days on Market: 173
Total Reduction: 6k round about: YAWN

17178 SONOMA HWY, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/02/05 -- $385,000 to $375,000
Price Reduced: 01/06/06 -- $375,000 to $329,000
Days on Market: 181
Total Reduction: 56k round about: 14.5%

980 RACHAEL RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/22/05 -- $2,495,000 to $2,375,000
Price Reduced: 01/16/06 -- $2,375,000 to $2,345,000
Price Reduced: 03/03/06 -- $2,345,000 to $2,250,000
Days on Market: 186
Total Reduction: 245k

12 WOODWORTH LN, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/10/06 -- $399,000 to $379,000
Days on Market: 193
Total Reduction: 20k round about: 5%

107 PINE AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/06/06 -- $479,000 to $469,000
Price Reduced: 03/12/06 -- $469,000 to $445,000
Days on Market: 215
Total Reduction: 34k

13400 SADDLE RD, Glen Ellen, CA
Price Reduced: 12/19/05 -- $1,149,000 to $1,049,000
Days on Market: 235
Total Reduction: 100k

17135 SONOMA HWY, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/05/06 -- $629,000 to $600,000
Price Reduced: 02/24/06 -- $600,000 to $599,000
Days on Market: 235
First Reduction: 29k round about: negligible
Second Reduction: 1k…

290 SERRES DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/03/06 -- $1,650,000 to $1,595,000
Days on Market: 291
Total Reduction: 55k round about a blip

1901 FREMONT DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/02/06 -- $2,950,000 to $2,650,000
Days on Market: 298
Total Reduction: 300k close to 10.1%

39 TEMELEC CIR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/22/06 -- $505,000 to $499,900
Days on Market: 48
Total Reduction: 5,100k - nothing to do but shake your head and move along...

222 BOYES BLVD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/21/06 -- $499,900 to $485,000
Days on Market: 72
Total Reduction: 14,900k round about barely 3%

174 W. Agua Caliente rd., Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 3/01/06 $329,000 to $325,000
Price Reduced: 03/13/06 $325,000 to $319,500
Days on Market: 41
Total Reduction: $9500 ummm… nothing to see here, move along, eyes front, eyes front.

470 BERNICE LN, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/02/06 -- $409,500 to $399,000
Days on Market: 50
Total Reduction: 10.5k not worth doing the math to find the %

18255 BARRETT AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/03/06 -- $469,000 to $439,000
Days on Market: 59
Total Reduction: 30k

508 BOKMAN PL, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/01/06 -- $640,000 to $634,000
Days on Market: 122
Total Reduction: 6k Again… with the laughter.

18440 LUCAS AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/28/06 -- $515,000 to $499,999
Days on Market: 173
Total Reduction: $15,001

20715 E 5TH ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/03/06 -- $2,350,000 to $2,295,000
Days on Market: 316
Total Reduction: only 55k

715 BOYES BLVD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/14/05 -- $879,000 to $849,000
Price Reduced: 02/08/06 -- $849,000 to $799,000
Days on Market: 194
Total Reduction: 80k round about 9.1%
this one was relisted at $799,000 on 03/06/06 trying to make it look like it has been on the market only 13 days.


Previous Price Reduced Properties No longer listed
13 no longer listed

111 W MACARTHUR ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/18/06 -- $450,000 to $430,000
Price Reduced: 02/13/06 -- $430,000 to $410,000
Days on Market: 59
Total Reduction: 40k round about still less than 10%

18817 RAILROAD AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/19/06 -- $649,000 to $644,500
Price Reduced: 02/01/06 -- $644,500 to $639,500
Days on Market: 60
Total Reduction: 9,500k

609 ROSS CT, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/06/06 -- $849,950 to $829,950
Price Reduced: 01/17/06 -- $829,950 to $799,950
Days on Market: 81
Total Reduction: 50k round about 6%

18585 MANZANITA RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/20/05 -- $740,000 to $729,000
Price Reduced: 02/07/06 -- $729,000 to $699,000
Days on Market 91
Total Reduction: 41k round about .... pppfffftttt

18015 HARVARD CT, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/04/06 -- $775,000 to $750,000
Days on Market: 107 Total Reduction: 25k
Oddly enough- another house just a couple doors down from this property sold two weeks ago- for $685,000 -could it be that this one also sold but just hasn’t been accounted for yet in the sales tally? Or perhaps pulled off the market because of the lower price of the other property?

919 1ST ST W, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/01/06 -- $415,000 to $405,000
Price Reduced: 02/25/06 -- $405,000 to $395,000
Days on Market: 112
First Reduction: 10k
Second Reduction: 10k

910 ARGUELLO CT, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/06/06 -- $649,500 to $629,500
Days on Market: 115
Total Reduction: 20k about 3%

920 5TH ST #M, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/16/05 -- $425,000 to $389,000
Price Reduced: 01/16/06 -- $389,000 to $373,000
Days on Market: 123
Total Reduction: 52k round about 12%

215 DEPOT RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/10/06 -- $565,000 to $525,000
Days on Market: 124 still there
Total Reduction: 40k right around 7%

511 BAINES AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/11/05 -- $535,000 to $510,000
Price Reduced: 11/30/05 -- $510,000 to $495,000
Price Reduced: 01/12/06 -- $495,000 to $479,500
Price Reduced: 02/23/06 -- $479,500 to $450,000
Days on Market: 175
Total Reduction: 85k

13432 ARNOLD DR, Glen Ellen, CA
Price Reduced: 01/13/06 -- $849,000 to $799,000
Days on Market: 221
Total Reduction: 50k round about 5.9%

16743 SONOMA HWY, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/29/05 -- $635,000 to $599,000
Days on Market: 501
Total Reduction: 36k

5767 SONOMA MOUNTAIN RD, Sonoma, CA 95442
Price Reduced: 02/24/06 -- $1,600,000 to $1,500,000
Days on Market: 159
Total Reduction: the magical $100k increment

18 Comments:

At 3/20/2006 11:03:00 AM , Blogger moonvalley said...

731 5TH ST E, Sonoma, CA 95476
according to zillow this place was valued at 112k in 1997....tax value 50K.....now they want 779k??? what the hell are they thinking? There is also no sales record so the place most likely still belongs to long time owners.

 
At 3/20/2006 02:42:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

ooh! MV... you just gave me an idea. I wonder what these price reduced listings zillow at...? Perhaps if I find an extra few hours in the day I will take a stab at putting a zillow value next to each of them. thanks for the inspiration.

 
At 3/20/2006 02:59:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

very insightful, found your mathematical computations and comments very entertaining.

..nothing that hasn't already been said: beginning of May these will re- list and be better priced to sell. But it won't matter because the prices will still be too high and everyone will know it..

 
At 3/20/2006 03:05:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

18762 Gillman, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $598,500 to $556,900
Days on Market: 68
Total Reduction: $41,600

Zillow sez:688,686.00
Value Range: $592,270 - $750,668
sale history:
08/05/2004: $575,000
03/19/2004: $497,000
ten years ago valued at abt. 177k
I think this house is in foreclosure BTW.

 
At 3/20/2006 03:09:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

great work! Yes, I think so too... that's what I was contemplating- doing a little match up with the foreclosure list, and some zillow information. would be an enlightening combination

 
At 3/20/2006 04:07:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

1270 Brockman Ln, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/06/06 -- $1,275,000 to $1,225,000
Days on Market: 54
Total Reduction: $50k

Zillow sez: $893,533
Value Range: $768,438 - $973,951
in 97 going for 182k property taxes on this baby
8513.00
total assessed value
586k and change
obviously not living in the reality based community.

 
At 3/20/2006 04:09:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

OMG!!! this is going to be very enlightening! WOW... that is some discrepancy!

 
At 3/20/2006 04:13:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

724 Charles Van Damme Way, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/09/06 -- $1,599,000 to $1,580,000
Days on Market: 54
Total Reduction: 19k

Zillow sez:$1,522,668
Value Range: $1,309,494 - $1,659,708
97 value 200k
property tax: 13,796.00 a year
tax value. 1.2m

 
At 3/20/2006 04:20:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

661 Verano, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $799,000 to $775,000
Days on Market: 55
Total Reduction: 24k

zillow sez:$739,994
Value Range: $636,395 - $806,593
Sale history:
02/01/2005: $662,000
11/25/2003: $540,000
03/17/1999: $270,000
Property Tax $6,545
value: $550,800

 
At 3/20/2006 04:30:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

157 Vineyard Cr. Sonoma, CA 95746
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $569,000 to $554,000
Days on Market: 105
Total Reduction: 15k

Zillow sez:$526,223
Value Range: $452,552 - $573,583
this is a condo....
97 value 140k
tax: $2,175
value: $142,866

 
At 3/20/2006 04:34:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

1346 E. Napa st. Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/10/06 -- $1,325,000 to $1,295,000
Days on Market: 118
Total Reduction: 30k

Zillow sez: $819,432
Value Range: $704,712 - $893,181
Previous sales:
06/30/2005: $895,000
01/14/1998: $317,000
Property tax:$3,743
value: $332,202
hell, they're only asking about 3x what it's worth!

 
At 3/20/2006 04:38:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

792 AUSTIN AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/14/06 -- $910,000 to $889,000
Price Reduced: 03/03/06 -- $889,000 to $859,000
Price Reduced: 03/16/06 -- $859,000 to $819,000
Days on Market: 54
Total Reduction: $91,000 about 10%

Zillow sez:$883,391
Value Range: $759,716 - $962,896
97 Price;220k
Sale History
10/22/2004: $689,000
03/28/2003: $535,000
Tax: $6,600
value: $689,000

 
At 3/20/2006 04:45:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

so do you see what I see? A bought to flip pattern?

nice...

 
At 3/20/2006 04:47:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

18423 RIVERSIDE DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/18/06 -- $650,000 to $575,000
Days on Market: 68
Total Reduction: $75,000 or about 11.5%

Zillow sez:$543,619
Value Range: $467,512 - $592,545
02/27/2004: $355,000
03/31/1999: $175,000
97 value: 162k
tax:$3,212
value: $362,100

222 & 226 W SPAIN ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/10/06 -- $2,275,000 to $1,975,000
Days on Market: 58
Total Reduction: 300k round about 13%

zillow sez:$1,478,839
Value Range: $1,271,802 - $1,611,935
Sales history:
12/02/2005: $1,500,000
97 value 190k
tax:$6,677
value: $504,278

 
At 3/20/2006 06:18:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

193 GUADALUPE DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/07/06 -- $629,000 to $619,000
Price Reduced: 03/10/06 -- $619,000 to $599,900
Days on Market: 70
Total Reduction: $29,100 still a bit sticky

Zillow sez:$487,758
Value Range: $419,472 - $531,656
aka..hot potato condo
10/18/2005: $445,000
10/11/2000: $249,500
01/28/2000: $190,000
Tax: $3,445
value:$269,720
97 value 142k

17660 17662 MIDDLEFIELD RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/02/06 -- $1,140,000 to $1,095,000
Days on Market: 96
Total Reduction: 45k round about... why bother?

Zillow sez: they can't find this house

 
At 3/21/2006 12:06:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

ok MV... I've been working on these too. I think I have about 15 left to finish and then I will put your work into its own post! This will be fun!

 
At 3/21/2006 12:11:00 AM , Blogger moonvalley said...

great! I was trying to do this while writing today..I just got a little way.

 
At 3/21/2006 12:18:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

you did great! much appreciated hard work! thank you. I will work on organizing it in the morning and hopefully get it up and posted tomorrow.

 

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