Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Monday, March 13, 2006

Show Me the Money...

...Brought to you today by the guys over at There Goes The Neighborhood

Great Analysis: (from Keith)

"Folks in the States, I've got some bad news. Our economy which has seemed so swell the past couple of years - it's an illusion, a false panacea. The housing ATM blinded us to the reality - our jobs are gone, especially in the manufacturing sector and rustbelt.

We've made our money the past few years selling each other our houses, in the greatest Ponzi scheme in human history, and taking money out of our houses that in the end, didn't exist yet must be repaid nonetheless. The illusion is now over, with falling home prices and exploding inventory. And the jobs are gone, gone for good. Not including the
over 1 Million about to go away with the housing crash.

Given the well-documented slowdown in home price appreciation lately as well as in new and existing home sales, it is difficult to imagine an economy that can sustain robust growth without that continued stimulus and it is hard to overestimate the ramifications of this deceleration.

There are so many industries on the periphery of the housing market, from real estate and mortgage brokers to the construction industry and commodities, that the layoffs already being seen in the mortgage lending industry are likely to increase throughout the housing-related sector."

Great Charts


At 3/13/2006 12:29:00 PM , Blogger Bubbletracker said...

Whoa- dont forget job loss in IT! Outsourcing, nearshoring, visa workers, layoffs..

Job loss is no longer affecting low paying jobs..

At 3/13/2006 01:33:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

I don't have a chart yet for that!!! LOL... put one up and I will link it up. :-D

At 3/13/2006 01:34:00 PM , Blogger Marinite said...

That first graph is startling. Of course, someone is going to come along and explain why the ordinate should be on a logarithmic scale. But still...

Marin Real Estate Bubble

At 3/13/2006 05:00:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

More great work. One interesting thing I find, is the fact that when many people fall off the unemployment rolls because their time is up and they haven't found work, they're not counted as unemployed anymore. Since this administration doesn't do "extensions" there is a whole iceberg of the jobless out there that the housing "Titanic" is heading straight for. There aren't enough lifeboats on this one either. Once the RE market truly tanks we're going to see how many of these long term unemployed have been staying alive.

At 3/13/2006 07:43:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you look at the Frey Demographic Data..... Thousands are always moving into California and Thousands are always moving out.

Question: Are the poor or less financially endowed the ones who move out while the wealthy and rich retirees move in?

Also what is with the big influx from Asia of people with mega bucks?

Also it seems to me that the "hippie wierdo" era has been replaced by liberal yuppies who secretly love PROP 13 because it allows them to live in Calif with low taxes. An interesting side bar is that a number of properties that were owned by religious kook groups are now up for sale in California.... Did these people shave, bathe, and get normal jobs or did they just move to Eureka?

Anyway the demographic shifts affecting California are interesting to study....

My theory: the wealthy will always gravitate to California for its climate. Just look at the people on the Forbes Billionaires list... And look at those who chose California over other places like Florida even with Florida's better tax climate.

At 3/13/2006 10:08:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

MV- also the unemployment don't count the underemployed. Those especially that were in the tech industry in Sonoma County and who had to take jobs in other industries paying them significantly less. there was that great article last month about the recruiter talking about how these folks finally got jobs, many of them after many months of being unemployed and they are getting used to the fact that their old salaries aren't coming back and making do on less.

so even when they talk about companies adding jobs... what kind of jobs were added? And what ones went away? And how comparable are the salaries?


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