Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Price Check Please?

MoonValley came up with the inspirational idea of checking these "price reduced" homes against their Zillow.com value. What a GREAT idea! Let's see just how much of a "bargain" is really being offered. (excellent data and entertaining commentary provided mostly by MoonValley)

Zillow.com is a site that has a proprietary formula it uses to calculate the market value of a property. It remains to be seen just how accurate it will turn out to be. Regardless of the discrepancies at present time, if it remains free from catering to those who gain the most from artificially inflating the market, it may prove to be a useful and democratic tool for the consumer.

I have broken out the price reduced list based on:

1. Priced Above the Zestimate (Zillow estimate)
2. Priced Below the Zestimate
3. Zillow can't find the house



Priced Above the Zestimate

731 5TH ST E, Sonoma, CA 95476

according to zillow this place was valued at 112k in 1997....tax value 50K
.....now they want 779k??? what the hell are they thinking?
Thereare no sales record so the place most likely still belongs to long time owners.

Price Reduced: 01/03/06 -- $875,000 to $849,950
Price Reduced: 01/09/06 -- $849,950 to $849,444
Price Reduced: 02/01/06 -- $849,444 to $799,444
Price Reduced: 02/26/06 -- $799,444 to $789,000
Price Reduced: 03/13/06 -- $789,000 to $779,000
Days on Market: 83
Total Reduction: 96k about 10.98%

Zillow sez: $633,975
Value Range: $545,218 - $691,033
No Sale History Available
Tax $1,372
Tax Value: $72,688
97 Value: 112k


18440 LUCAS AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/28/06 -- $515,000 to $499,999
Days on Market: 173
Total Reduction: $15,001
(I think this is in foreclosure)

Zillow sez: $485,513
Value Range: $417,541 - $529,209
1 yr. ago value $387k
97 value $145k
Sale History
06/20/1991: $140,000
Tax $2,594
Tax value $181,430


1270 Brockman Ln, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/06/06 -- $1,275,000 to $1,225,000
Days on Market: 54
Total Reduction: $50k

Zillow sez: $893,533
Value Range: $768,438 - $973,951
in 97 going for 182k
property taxes on this baby $8513.00
total assessed value586k and change
obviously not living in the reality based community.


724 Charles Van Damme Way, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/09/06 -- $1,599,000 to $1,580,000
Days on Market: 54
Total Reduction: 19k

Zillow sez:$1,522,668
Value Range: $1,309,494 - $1,659,708
97 value 200k
property tax: 13,796.00 a year
tax value. 1.2m


157 Vineyard Cr. Sonoma, CA 95746
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $569,000 to $554,000
Days on Market: 105
Total Reduction: 15k

Zillow sez:$526,223
Value Range: $452,552 - $573,583
this is a condo....
97 value 140k
tax: $2,175
tax value: $142,866


661 Verano, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $799,000 to $775,000
Days on Market: 55
Total Reduction: 24k

zillow sez:$739,994
Value Range: $636,395 - $806,593
Sale history:
02/01/2005: $662,000
11/25/2003: $540,000
03/17/1999: $270,000
Property Tax $6,545
tax value: $550,800


1346 E. Napa st. Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/10/06 -- $1,325,000 to $1,295,000
Days on Market: 118
Total Reduction: 30k

Zillow sez: $819,432
Value Range: $704,712 - $893,181
Previous sales:
06/30/2005: $895,0000
1/14/1998: $317,000
Property tax:$3,743
tax value: $332,202
hell, they're only asking about 3x what it's worth!


304 DECHENE AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/26/06 -- $659,000 to $639,000
Price Reduced: 03/06/06 -- $639,000 to $625,000
Days on Market: 103
Total Reduction: 34k

Zillow sez: $610,433
Value Range: $524,972 - $665,372
Sale History
07/23/2002: $310,000
Tax $4,048
Tax Value: $392,112
97 value: $177k


18423 RIVERSIDE DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/18/06 -- $650,000 to $575,000
Days on Market: 68
Total Reduction: $75,000 or about 11.5%

Zillow sez:$543,619
Value Range: $467,512 - $592,545
02/27/2004: $355,000
03/31/1999: $175,000
97 value: 162k
tax:$3,212
tax value: $362,100


222 & 226 W SPAIN ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/10/06 -- $2,275,000 to $1,975,000
Days on Market: 58
Total Reduction: 300k round about 13%

zillow sez:$1,478,839
Value Range: $1,271,802 - $1,611,935
Sales history:
12/02/2005: $1,500,000
97 value 190k
tax:$6,677
tax value: $504,278


193 GUADALUPE DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/07/06 -- $629,000 to $619,000
Price Reduced: 03/10/06 -- $619,000 to $599,900
Days on Market: 70
Total Reduction: $29,100 still a bit sticky

Zillow sez:$487,758
Value Range: $419,472 - $531,656
aka..hot potato condo
10/18/2005: $445,000
10/11/2000: $249,500
01/28/2000: $190,000
Tax: $3,445
tax value:$269,720
97 value 142k


535 MITCHELL WAY, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/16/06 -- $799,000 to $775,000
Price Reduced: 01/26/06 -- $775,000 to $750,000
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $750,000 to $739,000
Days on Market: 123
Total Reduction: 60k

Zillow sez: $629,806
Value Range: $541,633 - $686,489
1 yr. ago value $540k
97 value 182k
No Sale History Available
Tax $2,879
Tax Value $217,127


16880 ESTRELLA DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/02/06 -- $997,000 to $950,000
Days on Market: 144
Total Reduction: 47k round about 4.7%

Zillow sez: $911,121
Value Range: $783,564 - $993,122
1 yr. ago value $776k
97 value 220k
No Sales History Available
Tax $1,556
Tax value: $90,347


17930 SPRING ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/08/05 -- $499,000 to $484,000
Days on Market: 151
Total Reduction: 15k

Zillow sez: $440,055
Value Range: $378,447 - $479,660
1 yr. ago value $360k
Sales History:
07/12/2001: $180,000
07/16/1999: $85,000
Tax $2,718
Tax value: $198,366


832 2ND ST W, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/15/05 -- $545,000 to $525,000
Price Reduced: 01/13/06 -- $525,000 to $510,000
Days on Market: 151
Total Reduction: 35k in the ballpark of 6.5%

Zillow sez: $508,324
Value Range: $437,159 - $554,073
1 yr. ago value $437k
Sales History: (this is a condo)
08/07/2000: $260,000
05/02/1997: $139,000
06/15/1994: $158,000
Tax $3,567
Tax value: $281,071


19177 ARNOLD DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/05/05 -- $625,000 to $599,999
Price Reduced: 02/15/06 -- $599,999 to $589,000
Days on Market: 155
First Reduction: 26k
Second Reduction: 10k not really the kind of hustle we like to see
when the house has been sitting for 155 days.

Zillow sez: $546,820
Value Range: $470,265 - $596,034
1 yr. ago value $470k
97 value 132k
No Sales History Available
Tax $2,338
Tax value $157,923


17313 PARK AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/31/06 -- $599,999 to $589,999
Days on Market: 158
They relisted it on 2/16/06 trying to make it look like it has only been
on the market 16 days Total Reduction: 10k ...

Zillow sez: $580,418
Value Range: $499,159 - $632,656
1 yr. ago value $499k
97 value $145k
No Sale History Available
Tax $1,825
Tax value $115,351


13400 SADDLE RD, Glen Ellen, CA
Price Reduced: 12/19/05 -- $1,149,000 to $1,049,000
Days on Market: 235
Total Reduction: 100k

Zillow sez: $902,141
Value Range: $775,841 - $983,334
1 yr. ago $691k
97 value $300k
No Sale History Available
Tax $4,813
Tax value $391,001


508 BOKMAN PL, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/01/06 -- $640,000 to $634,000
Days on Market: 122
Total Reduction: 6k Again… with the laughter.

Zillow sez: $615,612
Value Range: $529,426 - $671,017
1 yr. ago value $529k
97 value $200k
(condo)
Sales History
12/06/2002: $420,000
02/09/1999: $65,000
06/17/1993: $208,000
Tax $5,355
Tax value $436,410


715 BOYES BLVD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/14/05 -- $879,000 to $849,000
Price Reduced: 02/08/06 -- $849,000 to $799,000
Days on Market: 194
Total Reduction: 80k round about 9.1%
this one was relisted at $799,000 on 03/06/06 trying to make it look like it has been on the market only 13 days.

Zillow sez: $592,526
Value Range: $509,572 - $645,853
1 yr. ago value $450k
97 value $176k
Sale History
01/26/2001: $200,000
Tax $3,455
Tax value $294,781


20715 E 5TH ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/03/06 -- $2,350,000 to $2,295,000
Days on Market: 316
Total Reduction: only 55k

Zillow sez: $991,357
Value Range: $852,567 - $1,080,579
1 yr. ago value $814k
97 value $300k
Sale History
05/29/1998: $279,000
Tax $4,539
Tax value $433,118



Priced Below the Zestimate
(before believing these are bargains, be sure to check the listing price against the property value a year ago and in 1997)

290 SERRES DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/03/06 -- $1,650,000 to $1,595,000
Days on Market: 291
Total Reduction: 55k round about a blip

Zillow sez: $2,064,436
Value Range: $1,775,415 - $2,250,235
1 yr. ago $1.45 million value
97 value $400k
No Sale History Available
Tax $16,257
Tax value $1,413,720


39 TEMELEC CIR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/22/06 -- $505,000 to $499,900
Days on Market: 48
Total Reduction: 5,100k -
nothing to do but shake your head and move along...

Zillow sez: $619,504
Value Range: $532,773 - $675,259
1 yr. ago value $492k
97 value $151k
Sale History
02/14/2005: $400,000
Tax $1,985
Tax value $130,211


107 PINE AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/06/06 -- $479,000 to $469,000
Price Reduced: 03/12/06 -- $469,000 to $445,000
Days on Market: 215
Total Reduction: 34k

Zillow sez: $618,789
Value Range: $532,159 - $674,480
1 year ago: $495k
97 value $173k
No Sale History
Tax $2,080
Tax value $219,300


792 AUSTIN AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/14/06 -- $910,000 to $889,000
Price Reduced: 03/03/06 -- $889,000 to $859,000
Price Reduced: 03/16/06 -- $859,000 to $819,000
Days on Market: 54
Total Reduction: $91,000 about 10%

Zillow sez:$883,391
Value Range: $759,716 - $962,896
1 yr. ago value $741k
97 Price;220k
Sale History
10/22/2004: $689,0000
3/28/2003: $535,000
Tax: $6,600
tax value: $689,000


18762 Gillman, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/08/06 -- $598,500 to $556,900
Days on Market: 68
Total Reduction: $41,600

Zillow sez: $688,686.00
Value Range: $592,270 - $750,668
1 yr. ago value $597k
sale history:
08/05/2004: $575,0000
3/19/2004: $497,000
ten years ago valued at abt. 177k
I think this house is in foreclosure BTW.


590 Fano Ln., Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/31/06 -- $869,000 to $839,000
Price Reduced: 03/10/06 -- $839,000 to $825,000
Days on Market: 80
Total Reduction: 44k

Zillow sez: $885,693
Value Range: $761,696 - $965,405
1 yr. ago value $761k
97 value: 182k
Sale History:
06/30/2000: $425,000
Tax $5,584
tax value: $560,716


846 848 3RD ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/18/05 -- $897,000 to $875,000
Price Reduced: 01/17/06 -- $875,000 to $850,000
Price Reduced: 03/15/06 -- $850,000 to $815,000
Days on Market: 153
Total Reduction: 82k about 9.15%

Zillow sez: $929,233
(duplex)
Value Range: $799,140 - $1,012,864
1 yr. ago value $752k
99 value 300k
Sale History:
08/13/2004: $699,000
Tax $3,585
Tax value: $699,000


162 W AGUA CALIENTE RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/09/06 -- $368,000 to $364,900
Price Reduced: 02/21/06 -- $364,900 to $359,900
Days on Market: 163
First Reduction: round about 3k... baahahahahaha!
Second Reduction: 5k

Zillow sez: $385,849
Value Range: $331,830 - $420,575
1 yr. ago value $311k
97 value: 113k
Sales History:
03/23/2000: $134,000
08/19/1993: $105,000
Tax $2,173
Tax value: $147,754


842 W 2ND ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/06/05 -- $549,000 to $539,000
Days on Market: 165
Total Reduction: 10k let me get my bullhorn...

Zillow sez: $614,562
Value Range: $528,523 - $669,873
1 yr. ago value $494k
Sales History:
04/06/2004: $410,000
06/27/1997: $159,000
Tax $2,580
Tax value: $418,710


399 DAHLIA DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/31/06 -- $545,000 to $539,000
Days on Market: 173
Total Reduction: 6k round about: YAWN

Zillow sez: $627,348
Value Range: $539,519 - $683,809
1 yr. ago value $517k
97 value $185k
Sale History
03/25/1994: $205,000
Tax $3,245
Tax value $247,383


980 RACHAEL RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/22/05 -- $2,495,000 to $2,375,000
Price Reduced: 01/16/06 -- $2,375,000 to $2,345,000
Price Reduced: 03/03/06 -- $2,345,000 to $2,250,000
Days on Market: 186
Total Reduction: 245k (house + 6.67 acres)

Zillow sez: $2,526,420
Value Range: $2,172,721 - $2,753,798
1 yr. ago value $1.8 mil.
97 Value $500k
Sale History
12/05/2002: $1,550,000
02/19/1998: $755,000
04/13/1995: $640,000
Tax $17,688
Tax Value $1,610,563


12 WOODWORTH LN, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/10/06 -- $399,000 to $379,000
Days on Market: 193
Total Reduction: 20k round about: 5%

Zillow sez: $401,560
Value Range: $345,342 - $437,700
1 yr. ago value $345k
97 value $117k
(condo)
Sale History
04/30/1999: $128,000
Tax $2,223
Tax value $143,962


17135 SONOMA HWY, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 01/05/06 -- $629,000 to $600,000
Price Reduced: 02/24/06 -- $600,000 to $599,000
Days on Market: 235
First Reduction: 29k round about: negligible
Second Reduction: 1k…

Zillow sez: $696,136
Value Range: $598,677 - $758,788
1 yr. ago value $567k
97 value $300k
Sale History
03/12/2004: $469,000
09/01/1995: $175,000
Tax $3,678
Tax value $478,380


174 W. Agua Caliente rd., Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 3/01/06 $329,000 to $325,000
Price Reduced: 03/13/06 $325,000 to $319,500
Days on Market: 41
Total Reduction: $9500
ummm… nothing to see here, eyes front, eyes front.

Zillow sez: $351,489
Value Range: $302,281 - $383,123
1 yr. ago value $302k
97 value $105k
Sale History
11/25/2003: $239,000
03/31/1999: $105,000
Tax $3,283
Tax value $243,780


470 BERNICE LN, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/02/06 -- $409,500 to $399,000
Days on Market: 50
Total Reduction: 10.5k
not worth doing the math to find the %

Zillow sez: $419,124
Value Range: $360,447 - $456,845
1 yr. ago value $360k
97 value $121k
(condo)
Sale History
03/03/2004: $304,000
07/28/2003: $265,000
12/23/1994: $121,500
Tax $3,528
Tax value $310,080


18255 BARRETT AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/03/06 -- $469,000 to $439,000
Days on Market: 59
Total Reduction: 30k

Zillow sez: $492,460
Value Range: $423,516 - $536,781
1 yr. ago value $415k
97 value $140k
Sale History
04/01/2004: $350,000
Tax $1,721
Tax value $357,000


Zillow Can't Find the House

17660 17662 MIDDLEFIELD RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/02/06 -- $1,140,000 to $1,095,000
Days on Market: 96
Total Reduction: 45k round about... why bother?

1385 BAINBRIDGE LN, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/13/05 -- $710,000 to $675,000
Price Reduced: 01/03/06 -- $675,000 to $670,000
Price Reduced: 02/09/06 -- $670,000 to $669,000
Price Reduced: 03/01/06 -- $669,000 to $665,000
Price Reduced: 03/07/06 -- $665,000 to $655,000
Days on Market: 118
Total Reduction: 55k

600 OMAN SPRINGS CIR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/08/05 -- $669,000 to $654,000
Price Reduced: 11/16/05 -- $654,000 to $639,000
Price Reduced: 01/09/06 -- $639,000 to $619,000
Days on Market: 153
Total Reduction: 50k in the neighborhood of 7.5%

17178 SONOMA HWY, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/02/05 -- $385,000 to $375,000
Price Reduced: 01/06/06 -- $375,000 to $329,000
Days on Market: 181
Total Reduction: 56k round about: 14.5%

1901 FREMONT DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/02/06 -- $2,950,000 to $2,650,000
Days on Market: 298
Total Reduction: 300k close to 10.1%

222 BOYES BLVD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 02/21/06 -- $499,900 to $485,000
Days on Market: 72
Total Reduction: 14,900k round about barely 3%

3 Comments:

At 3/22/2006 10:26:00 AM , Blogger moonvalley said...

Report from the Boulangerie..this morning. We happened to be sitting near a developer type. Mr. D who has been known to have a couple of Hummers..(not seen em lately) was bemoaning some sort of building project he had underway..didn't follow a great deal of it but what I did hear was his immediate need for 400k to float something. Maybe that's why I haven't seen the Hummers around.

 
At 3/22/2006 11:23:00 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

thank you athena,is anyone ot there following west county,specifically the sebastopol area? i get a lot of "it can't happen here" bs from otherwise sharp people...i was talking to my ex in houston,she described the marrket as "driven by emotion and guided by myths" she and her husband are cpa's,and they rent.

 
At 3/22/2006 01:05:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

I haven't followed west county specifically but would be glad to do some research and post anything that you find as well. Only too happy to keep the spotlight shining in the right places.

MV... update from the Toyota dealership in Santa Rosa. Was there this morning returning a loaner car and listened to the agent talking on the phone. She was saying that they had an open house both days over the weekend and got only two people. Both said how much they liked the house, and spent a lot of time there, but the agent hasn't heard from any of them. She was also saying that the last "buyer" for their house fell through because of a contingency... he couldn't sell his house.... ooops...

 

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