Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Thursday, April 20, 2006

POS Alert! emailed me a new listing in Sonoma today, which is odd since I don't subscribe to new listings- however, the description got my attention. Unfortunately, there is no picture yet, so I may have to venture out with my camera to prove my hunch is likely correct that this may be a real live POS Alert.


337 ARROYO RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
On Market: 1 day
Price Reduced: 04/20/06 -- $455,000 to $449,900

oh look at that... so perhaps this is not a new listing after all?

An unbelievable opportunity...Two houses for less than the price of one. Motivated seller has made these two charming cottages on one oak studded lot better than ever. Both cottages have been extensively remodeled. Private yards and a really cute setting. Ideal for an investor, owner/occupant, or extended families. Private laundry for each home. A great value for all. Separate gas and electric meters.

Zillow sez: $462,081
Value Range: $402,010 - $508,289
1 week change: Down -$23,464
Last updated: 03/25/2006
1 yr ago value: $367,00
Sale History
01/07/2005: $350,000
10/02/1997: $28,500

oops... this doesn't look much like a motivated seller to me, more like a flipper trying to make a quick buck before the market tanks completely. This will definitely warrant a drive by tomorrow to get pictures to see what kind of improvements if any have been done.

Did y'all catch that 1997 sale price... $28,500 in Sonoma...?

Tax Assessment History 2004
Property tax: $2,598
Assessed value bldgs: $71,021
Assessed value land: + $68,730
Total assessed value: = $139,751

This home at $462,081 is valued higher than:

• 5 % of homes in 95476 ZIP code (Median) $670,339

• 11 % of homes in Sonoma County (Median) $605,918

In the Past 30 days...

This home value declined: -9.7%

Sonoma Valley home values declined: -2.4%
Sonoma County home values declined:

We have pictures! Looks like there was a coat of paint put on these "cottages" and someone sprung for a window box style window... see for yourself.


At 4/21/2006 09:21:00 AM , Anonymous tom stone said...

home prices never go down in sonoma county,they just flatten when the elephant in the living room steps on them.

At 4/21/2006 09:24:00 AM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

Both cottages have been extensively remodeled.

Let me get this straight...from $28K to $450K in nine short years? In a more normal world, a $422K increase should include a completely rebuilt home--nor some unspecified "remodel".

"Ideal for an investor"
And that can only mean you, the seller. LOL, what a tool.

At 4/21/2006 12:32:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

I know!!! I can't even imagine what it is that sold for $28k nine years ago! LOL... after my all hands meeting today I am going to go see for myself what we are dealing with. Stay tuned for pictures.

At 4/22/2006 07:43:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

Those interior shots look like a bunker. I like how they found a bistro table and chairs tall enough to see through those windows! Then there's that execrable kitchen--what were they thinking? There's no functional thought here. Seriously, everything looks like the military housing circa 1950. I don't see how this merits $100K in appreciation, let alone $422K--incredible.

At 4/22/2006 07:51:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

Not to mention, if this property is so "ideal" for an investor, what sort of rental income could it generate?

Given the local market, I wouldn't rent that out for over $950/mo. Where's that alleged "positive cash flow"?

At 4/22/2006 09:12:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

according to zillow these buildings represent just a little over 600sq ft of living space!

They did a good job of cleaning up the outside and at least making it look neat and the paint job is fairly new... this is in one of the back alley streets in boyes hot springs... crooked, cramped little streets... there are three houses across the street... the street I talk about is barely wide enough for one economy car by the way.... but the three houses across the street are all painted the same color... kind of a pinky flesh tone that doesn't belong on any house... like a pinky brick color that just makes me wonder if all three pitched in for some sale priced discontinued paint.

this place's neatness on the outside is absolutely in direct contrast to the neighborhood. but come on... with 600 sq. ft. of living space how can you go wrong? LOL ;-D

At 4/23/2006 11:25:00 AM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

Yeah, I've driven through that area...dumpsville. Living near the square might be one thing, but rent for 600sqft out there, would that be $800 tops? Like the guy wrote, it's "ideal for an investor"?

At 4/23/2006 01:31:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

right... an investor like him maybe? Why is he selling? Don't you want to know the answer to that question? Bought it a year ago... and now turning it around and expecting a 100k biscuit for his trouble?

What are we know a country with an economy that simply pays people for the trouble of owning real estate?

At 4/23/2006 04:36:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

"What are we now? a country with an economy..."

...that somehow rewards all sorts of bogus concepts, from consumerism to corporate financial schemes, MLM scams, and bubble manias. Isn't it great?

At 4/23/2006 05:06:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

The only economy where part of our GDP really is owed to the get rich quick schemes we manufacture. nice.

At 4/28/2006 11:56:00 AM , Blogger said... integrates how much homes SOLD for nationwide using the google mapping technology. Simply select city and state from the city menu and click search. If you don't see data for your area simply email with your zipcode and or address and they'll update the site with your info and email you within a few days.

At 6/28/2007 01:27:00 AM , Anonymous Mike said...

Perhaps you can also take advantage of kitchen bar stools for your kitchen counters.


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