Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Too Bad, So Sad.... Buh-Bye!



As red-hot real estate markets begin to cool, veteran real estate professionals expect that many newcomers to the business will seek out easier ways to make money.

Veteran real estate professional Ray Brown, co-author of the real estate primer “Home Buying for Dummies,” says it's a good thing when the market weeds out the least devoted practitioners.

He's seen it happen many times before as the housing sector expanded and contracted over the past 30 years."If you can imagine a wind going through a forest and blowing all the dead branches off the trees, that is not bad," he says.

"Nature is pruning. The weakest agents will be the first to go. I don't care how tough the market gets, the finer agents will be there."

“When sales are brisk, it’s a lot easier to make a living in real estate. But when inventory grows, part-timers and newcomers are often the first to find another career. Veteran real estate professionals expect that many newcomers to the business will seek out easier ways to make money.”

“‘When the market is hot, agents come out of the woodwork,’ says Diana Lusk, a San Diego, Calif., real estate practitioner. ‘When the market cools down they go back to what they were doing before.’”

13 Comments:

At 4/26/2006 02:43:00 PM , Blogger Marinite said...

The tics are leaving the dog.

 
At 4/26/2006 02:50:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

with immigration reform coming there should be opportunities in the wine business,and other parts of the agricultural sector when the ground dries a

 
At 4/26/2006 04:35:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

But that just won't do for the good looking and charming!!! Who will see them then?

I noticed a trend in some of the people I saw running into the industry during the lastdays of the party-

Themes I noticed:

people who have actually made full on careers of dead end jobs, but who believe they should make money because of their good looks and charm ...

believing that real estate only goes up, and it sells itself, and all they have to do is be there and look good and people will want to buy from them.

 
At 4/26/2006 07:43:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

Heard a good one from a friend today..four houses were for sale on her street in the last couple of weeks..one is in some form of pre-sale, theoter is sitting there, the other two were quietly withdrawn from the market.

 
At 4/26/2006 07:48:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

I have been noticing houses on the mls going "poof"

and have noticed houses with signs on them and then poof... the signs are gone a few weeks later- long before a listing would expire.

However, the listings list is still growing. I think there was a back room discussion a while back and people were being encouraged to not put them on the market until after easter.. because before easter for a couple weeks my daily new listings emails just stopped. came to a stand still. Then right after easter I get several a day now...

 
At 4/26/2006 08:53:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

Relaty Trac keeps sending me lists of foreclosure and pre-fore houses, gad, there sure are alot of them lately. The number seems to be growing. Have you noticed that?

 
At 4/26/2006 09:08:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Yes, I've been getting those too.

 
At 4/27/2006 12:43:00 AM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

with immigration reform coming there should be opportunities in the wine business

LOL...wages from agriculture would certainly drive down housing "values". Regarding the wine business, we could see a future overproduction of grapes. With so much land being converted to vineyards, as well as rising wine imports, I think we'll someday see a reversal in Cal. winery economies, excepting the premium areas. Could we face a corresponding devaluation of "lifestyle" communities based on wine and gourmet shops? Perhaps it won't affect Napa/Sonoma, but I could see other wannabe areas growing quiet, especially if the economy falters.

 
At 4/27/2006 10:24:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

I think if the economy keeps picking the pocket of the average consumer we will see a drop off in the wine industry. People are already spending more $ for gas that gets pissed away on the highways. I think if there are any other speedbumps like this one the consumer's tolerance for spending money on things that are pissed away too quickly will lessen.

People tend to use disposable income for disposable goods when they feel like they aren't being nickel and dimed all over the place. The sensation from spending more for gas has had a history of tightening the consumer fist for disposable goods.

 
At 4/27/2006 11:40:00 AM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

The sensation from spending more for gas has had a history of tightening the consumer fist for disposable goods.

Definitely, and I also suspect that gas prices will labeled as the culprit if/when housing prices "tank"? Perhaps, they'll give other reasons, but I doubt financial irresponsibility will be the main cause; we love to blame something outside our control.

 
At 4/27/2006 06:01:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Oh I have no doubt... financial folly will not be blamed. It will all be Bush's fault for fiddling with the middle east and causing the gas prices to soar, taking money right out of everyone's pockets. They will blame the gas as the reason their paychecks don't go as far anymore, and why they are having trouble making their mortgage payments. It won't be that their mortgage is too high because they overpaid for their mcmansion. It will be that they lost out on all the appreciation they were entitled to when they have to sell for a loss... because there were no buyers who could afford what their house was really "worth" because gas prices were eating their wealth too!

 
At 4/30/2006 11:03:00 AM , Blogger luckynite said...

You know what? The same thing happened here in the telecomm/internet industry in N. Virginia. In 1995 you could not find enough people to test DS3's. Dot.Com bust and so went the jobs. Where did they go. "Bingo" Real Estate. I wonder what is next?

 
At 4/30/2006 01:59:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

I remember that Luckynite, had some friends in the tech industry there in No. Va... and both had to relocate elsewhere for the jobs. I don't know what is going to be next this time... the job growth in CA has been largely due to the RE/and associated industries. By the resumes I am starting to see coming in daily everyone and the horse they rode in on in the past 5 years went to become mortgage brokers and real estate agents. Looks like some tried to enter other careers but when 2001 hit other industries weren't hiring but cutting back... and now where are these people going to go?

 

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