Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Monday, May 15, 2006

April Sales Data

Sonoma County April Sales Data


* Home sales were down 16.8% from March, and off 24.6% compared to last April.

* Condo sales fell 25% from the month before and were off 32.1% year-over-year.

* The median price for homes gained 3.7% to $595,000, an annual appreciation of 0.9%.

* This is the third month in a row the year-over-year appreciation has been less than 1%.

* The median price is down 3.8% from the peak of $618,450 reached last August.

Comments and advice from the Realtor

"If you're an investor, the party's over."

"If your planning to buy a home to live in for awhile, do it. Just don't do it with an interest only or short-term mortgage, rates are heading up."

Sonoma Specific Data

* Median price $618,000

* Down -4.90%

* Sales in Sonoma (it's different here) Valley down -47.90%

* Sonoma (everyone wants to live here) Valley had the highest % sales decline than any other city in the county.

* Days on the market is averaging 100 (no quick sales for flippers here)

* Ignore the sales price to list price statistic as you can see from the long price reduced lists there is a lot of fudging of the numbers going on with multiple reductions and flat out MLS fraud by relisting the houses in a lame attempt to hide the days on the market tally and price history.

* Sonoma (it's magical here) Valley had 2 condo sales in April

* Sales down -77.80% yoy


At 5/16/2006 12:00:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

thank you for the numbers,will they be calling sonoma the whine country soon? i predict the lawyers will start making $ on this situation pretty quickly,given the carelessness of real estate "professionals" and the litigious nature of our populace.has "real estate always goes up" replaced "i promise,it's only a cold sore" as the third most common lie?

At 5/16/2006 12:06:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

You know... I have been seeing a lot of the google and yahoo and msn searches for people finding this site, and many of those searches are centered around calculating ARM loan reset amounts. Some specifically looking for reset calculation, some looking for minimim payment etc... This is now a common search string delivering them here. Some people are really starting to think about this.

At 5/16/2006 12:38:00 PM , Blogger Marinite said...


When will it be our turn?

At 5/16/2006 12:48:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

very soon marinite,plenty of people qualified at 50% of their gross income for a 5% ARM in marin too...not many of those folks can qualify for a fixed 6.58% 30 year loan (with a point).the first real wave of resets starts in june,and it just takes off from there...for will be hearing the screams soon.

At 5/16/2006 04:31:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

So we should expect a trend from smug Marin "owners" to those of a more whiny vintage? I'm particulary interested in what happens in "prime" areas where people begged, borrowed, and perhaps even stole just to "get in". It would be a sad day indeed if anyone had to depart their tony Tiburon digs for a rental home in ::gasp:: Novato.

At 5/16/2006 04:42:00 PM , Blogger Marinite said...

for will be hearing the screams soon.

Then I had better enter my bomb shelter because they will be all screaming how it is my fault and the fault of all the bubble bloggers. And I do mean bomb shelter because the only house I could afford to buy in Marin was one of those army coastal bunkers on the Marin Headlands and it only cost me $650,000 (because of the view). LOL. Just kidding of course.

At 5/16/2006 05:42:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

hi marinite,does it give you a feeling of godlike power when people blame you for the housing crash...? the "i can't be out of money,i still have checks left" crowd can be amusing in a dark way.and i do have a black sense of humor,but i know that frightened people are dangerous,particularly stupid,frightened i really try not to go on a riff with these folks.

At 5/16/2006 05:58:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Hearing about the all powerful bubble bloggers makes me want to play that song Annie Lennox covered...

"I can turn the grey sky blue
And I can make it rain whenever I want it to

And I can build a castle from a single grain of sand
And I can make a ship sail on dry land

I can fly like a bird in the sky
I can buy anything that money can buy

I can turn a river into a raging fire
I can live forever if I so desire

I can turn back the hands of time - you better believe I can
I can make the seasons change just by the wave of my hand"

At 5/16/2006 06:25:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

I can't get next to you.

At 5/17/2006 09:37:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

...she says while looking for anywhere to sit in the boulangerie to avoid sitting next to the realtwhores.

At 5/17/2006 10:17:00 AM , Anonymous tom stone said...

athena,you can have a lot of fun sitting next to these folks...they are fair game! let's sit together and start talking about ALL THE MONEY IN FORECLOSURES WE NEVER WOULD HAVE MADE IF THE REALTORS HADN'T F'D THEIR CLIENTS!!! or "REMEMBER THE OLD OFFICE MANAGER AT COLDWELL BANKER? HE"S AT ROUNDTABLE NOW!

At 5/17/2006 11:47:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

bahahaha! By the way... last night my daughter and I were driving through the plaza on the way home from my nephew's birthday dinner and there was some realtwhore to do down there. (around 9:30 pm) They were all standing outside the realty company on the corner about 25 of them... and my daughter of course was pointing and staring and saying... "look, there was a big realtwhore meeting! What were they talking about?!?!?"

oh to have been a fly on the wall at that meeting.

Hey Mv... who did you sit next to today? Was anyone talking about what last night's meeting was about?

At 9/20/2007 06:05:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

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