Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Sunday, May 28, 2006

Boom or Bust Video

Are Things Really Different This Time?

Google has a great video about the housing market. Video is done by Christopher Thornberg, an Economist from UCLA Anderson School of Business. Very informative. Great Data.

Links and brief commentary can also be found at Marin Real Estate Bubble and BubbleMeter.

(video is 50 minutes long... I wouldn't try it on a dial up line. If you are on a dial up line.... Get broadband! Yahoo DSL is only $12.99 a month.)

13 Comments:

At 5/28/2006 01:52:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

You're right: an excellent summary. In fact, I think Thornburg paints a worse scenario than mere house prices; how much could this credit/housing expansion turn California's economy?

 
At 5/28/2006 05:08:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

the structural political defects in california ensure that no intelligent or rational response to this crisis will come from sacramento...and DC....oh yeah,that will be special.i think it's time for a sonma pos blog,that sotheby's listing on 12 at warm springs rd is wonderful...your own vineyardette...fall asleep to the soothing riverlike sound of hwy 12.i'm going to find that listing...maybe call the broker for a showing

 
At 5/28/2006 05:36:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

btw thank you for the test email,i tried to respond and suspect it didnot work.is there a better place than starbuck's in sonoma to get tea...i can't drink coffee..and ended up drinking their tea again today

 
At 5/28/2006 05:39:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

We were there! ;-) You don't like their tea?

 
At 5/28/2006 05:45:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

reskeptic... I think this bubble could be very painful in particular for California's economy. Much more so than anywhere else since the FB Syndrome spans the entire state. HUGE metros in the state as well. In each area where local middle class residents bought into the realtor lies about being priced out forever and wedged every last cent they had to get into a house or never be able to afford one... will be hit hard.

These are the people most vulnerable to the price resets.

and I think Sonoma County didn't give 60% of the loans last year to flippers... I bet they were strapped middle classers who felt they had to get on the train at any cost thinking it was a no lose situation.

I think a lot of the typical suburban areas are going to find they have a lot of F'd Borrowers much more so than the SF's and peninsula type places.

That is going to be a huge impact to the economy I think...

also any area that had people holding mortgage lending and real estate jobs are going to feel the pinch in the pocket from the lack of business... and the lack of jobs. How are they going to pay the bills?

Also... how many of them are overleveraged themselves on properties they hoped to flip?

 
At 5/28/2006 07:07:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

yes,i was there,sitting with a yellow happy face balloon,and reading the real estate section of the chronicle.maxwell viiage starbuck's.

 
At 5/28/2006 07:08:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

their tea is worse than lipton's

 
At 5/28/2006 07:12:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

hmmm... MV did you see Tom? How did we miss him?

 
At 5/28/2006 07:24:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

the impact is already substantial and a lot of responsible people will be hurt...i know a professional here,self employed he makes low 6 figures 1 kid,bought a home about '95,refied to a 15 yr 5.125,took out some cash to build a home office,in 02.wife hits 50,wants to party...so he wants to keep the house til the kid leave in 6 yrs,buy the wife out... and due to the combination of appreciation and higher rates he does not qualify for a loan....if he did,he would sill have 35% equity...something is real wrong here.

 
At 5/28/2006 10:10:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

were you two the very respectable couple with the dogs in front,that was the calmest weimaraner i ever met!

 
At 5/28/2006 10:49:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

no... there were four of us hopefully looking respectable while talking rudely and laughing inside. ;-)

 
At 5/29/2006 06:22:00 AM , Anonymous tom stone said...

3rd try is the charm

 
At 5/29/2006 08:50:00 AM , Anonymous tom stone said...

i'll wear a purple beret,and carry a feng shui text next time so i look like a local...or maybe a stained resistol and worn cowboy boots with a look of faint disgust...no,bad idea people would ask if i were a real cowboy...and i'd have to spit if i wanted them to think i was..unsanitary.any ideas? as far as dsl...can't get it here, i'm at the end of the phone line...string and cans from here on and the birds steal the string to make nests.

 

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