Greed Goeth Before the Fall...
"The U.S. housing market will slow 10 percent this year, predicts John Tuccillo."
"The U.S. is beholden to unsavory people in unstable regimes, Tuccillo said, speaking at a recent Real Estate Research Forum in Richmond sponsored by the Virginia Association of Realtors. That dependence could damage the overall economy and send housing tumbling, he said."
'"The economy next year is fine, but it's beyond 2007 that I'm worried about."
Addiction to oil needs attention -- now, Tuc cillo said. "We are importing more than half our oil. It means we are vulnerable to a cut-off in supply."
'"Oil producers from Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela come from unstable and unreliable regimes. We have to be nice because we are addicted to oil."
"Falling real income. "Real wages have not kept pace with inflation. Consumers are less able to be robust contributors to growth."
"We live in a win-and-take-all society, where we pay extraordinary rewards to people at the top of the pecking order. . . . With continuing falling real income, growth will stall and stagnate."
"Living beyond our means. The U.S. owes the world $600 billion more than it receives. "The bill is coming due when the baby boomers cash checks for Social Security."'
"The country is so saddled in debt that it will have problems competing in a flat economic world with no boundaries, Tuccillo said."
"Foreign investors have taken on U.S. debt. "What happens when the supply of American debt gets higher and they refuse to take it except at higher terms?"'
"Junk mortgages. There's a tremendous amount of interest-only adjustable rate mortgages."
"Greed goeth before a fall. Interest rates are going up, teasers are running out and notes are coming due."
"When people get stretched and choose between paying their monthly mortgage or doing other consumption, they will rob Peter to pay Paul. Peter, in this case, is the engine of economic growth."