Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Prices too High, Buyers on the Bench

"Although quarterly profits rose 3 percent from the year-earlier period, Toll Bros. Inc. on Tuesday trimmed its 2006 outlook due to slowing demand for new houses and rising labor and material costs."

''We believe many customers currently feel a lack of urgency to purchase due to their uncertainty over the direction of home prices," says Chief Executive Robert Toll, in a news release."

"Earlier this month when the company released preliminary quarterly results, it knocked down its 2006 home-delivery estimate for a third time, to between 9,000 and 9,700 homes.
Toll says fear over the housing market "has contributed to keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines."'

"The company reiterated its view that speculators are throwing in the towel and the housing market will rebound once it works its way through the excess inventory."


At 5/23/2006 06:24:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

once it works its way through the inventory,and the economy rebounds...didn't i read about a 22 year inventory of condo's in south florida? the weather should help out there later this year...a couple of category 4 hurricanes will thin out the inventory just in time for the usual halloween bounce.

At 5/24/2006 05:12:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

these properties just need the right kind of marketing,check out how agent suzanah juras does it in today's "matier and ross" column in the chronicle...her clients stop arguing price as soon as she says"webcam".here in westcounty the best i've been offered is cookies and happy horseshit.guess we are behind the times.

At 5/24/2006 09:27:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

everyone's got a gimmick... it reminds me of that song that shawn mullins sings about L.A. how everyone's got a plan and its kind of like Nashville with a tan. ;-)

I was in Santa Monica today and noticed all sorts of for rent signs. Then on the way back to the airport the guys from the office that were from our San Diego office got to talking about real estate... seems news of the air leaking out of the bubble has missed them... they still think it is a great time to buy if you can afford to get in.

At 5/25/2006 09:42:00 AM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

" everyone's got a plan and its kind of like Nashville with a tan. ;-)"

LOL, so true. The same could be said for the SF Bay area. I've lost track of people I know with "startups". Everyone's an entrepreneur here, or a future real estate mogul.

At 5/25/2006 11:02:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

LOL... I did start-ups for many years. Well, they are now name brand companies... but still, its been a while since I have met anyone with a business plan and stars in their eyes looking for venture funding. The last 4 years has been dominated by junior wannabe Warren Buffets all seeking their fame and fortune flipping houses and making easy money using their charms as real estate agents. so old...the worst part is just trying to have an intelligent conversation about basic economics with them. Virtually impossible. Like they suspend all rules of logic and believe it doesn't apply to their new found passion or career. we will see if they learn an appreciation for numbers and logical reasoning when their bank balance approaches zero.

At 5/25/2006 03:12:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

"...the worst part is just trying to have an intelligent conversation about basic economics with them"

Yeah, the same suspension of critical thinking I saw in the tech boom again applies today. What can possibly go wrong?

Oh btw: I wasn't referring to legitimate startups as much as any half-baked scheme can be called a startup, with hastily printed biz cards and "CEO" under their name. It's "Nashville with a business plan."

At 5/25/2006 07:21:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

It's "Nashville with a business plan."

It certainly was! ;-)


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