Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Stats 8-10-06


Sometimes it is nice to pause for effect when looking at data progression.

Behold, the inventory stats....


Sonoma County MLS: 4072
(Bareis MLS)

# on Price Reduced List: 1476

Sonoma County listings progression
3/20/06 = 1742
3/26/06 = 1766
4/03/06 = 1888
4/19/06 = 2828
4/25/06 = 2868
4/30/06 = 2898
8/10/06 = 4072

Sonoma Valley MLS: 471
(GMAC)

# on Price Reduced List: 167

Sonoma Valley listing progression
2/14/06 = 172
2/14/06 = 183
2/24/06 = 193
2/25/06 = 200
2/27/06 = 214
3/01/06 = 219
3/04/06 = 220
3/12/06 = 230
3/20/06 = 236
3/26/06 = 238
4/03/06 = 268
4/19/06 = 291
4/25/06 = 305
4/30/06 = 315
8/10/06 = 471

17 Comments:

At 8/11/2006 07:01:00 AM , Blogger Bubble-X said...

wow- fabu info..

 
At 8/11/2006 12:10:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

do all the new listings i see just mean that we are moving into the prime halloween buying season?

 
At 8/11/2006 12:59:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh Goddess of Common Sense,

When your prophecy becomes reality and the housing crash decimates our economy along with your precious job, will you still be posting your haughty little witticisms about what fucking idiots we all are from your almighty perch? Or will you face the realization that this sophomoric blog contributes nothing to the common good and only exposes your seething jealousy at those of us who were able to realize the dream of affordable, enjoyable homeownership?

 
At 8/11/2006 01:18:00 PM , Anonymous ben said...

"affordable enjoyable homeownership". Now there's an oxymoron.
You are obviously in the real estate "business".

 
At 8/11/2006 02:24:00 PM , Blogger Marinite said...

the dream of affordable, enjoyable homeownership?

Ha ha! That would be the dream, wouldn't it?

 
At 8/11/2006 02:45:00 PM , Blogger Marinite said...

I don't know about you Athena, but if it was me, anonymous coward 12:59's entire post would get front and center attention in a post and then taken apart piece by piece. What an opportunity!

 
At 8/11/2006 02:51:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's the whole point -- yes, it's a dream for most right now, because affordability is so out of whack. (And those who resorted to creative financing to make the dream a reality deserve to lose their shirts for not understanding the details of their loans, IMO.)

But in the not-too-distant past people were able to buy houses affordably, even in Sonoma. And those are the people that GCS is so obviously jealous of -- those that made the dream a reality back when it was possible to do that. Not her fault for not taking the plunge then, but why wear her anger at having missed the boat on her sleeve?

There are plenty of ways to position yourself to make money if you think housing is going to crash -- shouldn't a champion of common sense be discussing these instead of the latest chart?

 
At 8/11/2006 03:03:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Or will you face the realization that this sophomoric blog contributes nothing to the common good and only exposes your seething jealousy at those of us who were able to realize the dream of affordable, enjoyable homeownership?

Dear F.B. Whiner,

1. If the blog is so sophomoric, then why are you here?

2. If homeownership were affordable to the likes of the masses more than 7% of the county would be able to buy a home, and the need to use stated income/no doc/ Interest only loans- as illusory affordability products wouldn't have tripled in the past five years.

Very few people who bought in the last 5 years in Sonoma county are enjoying or will enjoy the benefits of affordable home ownership.

3. As for jealousy perhaps you should check your rants first. Homeowner here, bought low... very low... at the bottom of the market in 1986. *I* enjoy the benefits of affordable enjoyable home ownership.

FB's that mortgaged their souls to take on the debt of the previous greedster who refied his a$$ to have his BMW, Hummer,and Escalade are going to be the ones who will really be angry.

When the economy tanks because of the pyramid players who created and perpetuated real estate as the lazy man's way to wealth, it will be The Effed Ones who bought the house of lies that you should worry about.

Those are the guys that will bring every politico and lawyer who will listen to come after all those that stood to gain by participating and keeping the pyramid going.

That pyramid and the industries that supported it is what will decimate this economy.

4. Will my job be affected? Perhaps, my industry has always been affected by fluctuations in the economy, especially when technology stocks shat the bed.

Fortunately for me, there has always been work, though the problems I have to solve get a whole lot tougher.

But if for some reason there were no jobs in my industry... you better believe there would be work available on the class action committees going after the Crooked Real Estate Agents, Mortgage Brokers and Appraisers that colluded in this home debtors pyramid scheme.

Chit... I would consider doing that kind of work completely pro-bono. Talk about serving a higher good. Nice of you to invite me to think about this. You've been a real inspiration. Thanks for playing.

5. At least you got the salutation correct. Don't forget to genuflect and kiss my a$$ upon your exit.


Athena

 
At 8/11/2006 03:19:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

But in the not-too-distant past people were able to buy houses affordably, even in Sonoma. And those are the people that GCS is so obviously jealous of -- those that made the dream a reality back when it was possible to do that. Not her fault for not taking the plunge then, but why wear her anger at having missed the boat on her sleeve?

Dear Anonymous Poster who must resort to making up material in order to pretend to have something to contribute:

Let's review:

1. GCS is a homeowner who actually has a pretty good handle on the meaning of investment. Buys Low/Sells High. I like it this way. It is precisely because of this common sense attitude about $$$ and how it gets made and lost that I am here writing this blog and documenting the follies of the fools who apparently failed basic math.

2. Jealous? That makes me laugh out loud, and in front of others. Jealous of people who are in debt beyond their eyeballs? bwahahahaha!!!

The likes of those who made this kind of new-age debtor's prison possible for the FB's we will be hearing about for generations will become the new scourge of society. The new carpet baggers. I am jealous of neither the FB nor their Agents.

Let me guess... you're a real estate agent or recently laid off mortgage broker? A little too much time on your hands nowadays huh? ;-D

3. As for taking the plunge... LOL :-D Real estate is NOT a freaking swimming pool, but how apropos for you to talk about it this way considering how many Effed Sonoma County home debtors who followed shister advice are already underwater and it just keeps rising.

tsk tsk tsk... go back to your doublewide and sell something. Or better yet, get a job. Maybe Amway or UPS are hiring.

 
At 8/11/2006 03:47:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Marinite said...
I don't know about you Athena, but if it was me, anonymous coward 12:59's entire post would get front and center attention in a post and then taken apart piece by piece. What an opportunity!


I'll do my best Marinite. I looked at the logs and the ISP address for our anonymous posting phantom crapper friend is entirely unimpressive.

 
At 8/11/2006 04:17:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ooh, a lawyer! What fun.

Okay, I'll admit defeat on the jealousy part. You bought back when it was affordable? Kudos to you, and welcome to the club.

I'll ignore your entire rant about how the lemmings deserve to lose their shirts. We're in agreement on that, though I understand acknowledging that fact would have diluted your otherwise brilliantly acerbic tirade, much to the dismay of the sad blog-groupies that I'm sure cling desperately to your every biting word while salivating over the latest doom-and-gloom data point you feed them.

My main question remains unadressed, and I'll ask it again because I think it deserves a serious answer (though I'm sure we'll have to dig for it -- you seem to favor lame insults over facts).

There are plenty of ways to position yourself to make money if you think housing is going to crash -- shouldn't a champion of common sense be discussing these instead of the latest chart?

 
At 8/11/2006 04:40:00 PM , Anonymous Ben said...

Go figure that out for yourself loser.
What makes you think we want to profit from someone else's stupidity?
This is a blog about overpriced real estate in Sonoma county.
BTW, shouldn't you be looking for a job?

 
At 8/11/2006 05:08:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Posted by my anonymous friend There are plenty of ways to position yourself to make money if you think housing is going to crash -- shouldn't a champion of common sense be discussing these instead of the latest chart?

Darlin' if you want to discuss ways of positioning one's self to make money, have at it.

The purpose of this blog was to talk about the unreal state of real estate in sonoma, especially because of its economic impact to all of us.

I don't claim to be an investment adviser though I have benefitted from some pretty smart people that taught me the value of a dollar and the meaning of investment, and will readily admit to missing quite a few boats all on my own. Though the real estate boat was not one of them. Then again I wasn't looking at real estate as an investment vehicle as much as a practical asset hedge that provides a place to live, and a 1-2% hedge against inflation over time.

That being said, if you have thoughts on investment paths that should be of interest then have at it. Certainly it can be an additional benefit to the original purpose of the blog if people use the information to their advantage.

As for whether I personally should be discussing alternative investment vehicles... First...The answer is not really. Again, my purpose is to provide information regarding the current state of the real estate bubble and provide items of interest to me and others regarding how this bubble is having impact on all involved and even to those of us just watching. It will touch us all.

Secondly, I am master over my own money, and not anyone else's. I am not an investment specialist, nor do I play one on the web. But will certainly provide an avenue to anyone who wants to draw some comparisons between Real Estate and more effective investment options.

Athena

 
At 8/11/2006 05:10:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Oh... and for the record. I am not an attorney and do not play one on the web or tv. Though our corporate attorney has laughed on occassion when I did all the legwork on a project for him that I should become one to avoid practicing law without a license.

 
At 8/11/2006 05:36:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for the explanation -- you have my respect for what you're trying to achieve here -- but frankly I found it a little harsh when you referred to "A flipper trying to make superficial price drops before he has to fully bend over and drop his pants" hence my critical attitude. It's easy to think ill of people trying to make a quick buck, but what if that dude is someone's dad, maybe someone you know, about to lose his shirt? On the one hand I say "let them lose them" since they obviously didn't read the fine print, but on the other hand you can't forget that financial loss hits everyone hard, maybe even you and me eventually.

Anyway (Ben), I'm not trying to get rich off other people's misfortune either -- but the concept of short selling is an entirely legitimate trading strategy. Are you telling me if you had a time machine you wouldn't go back to March 2000 and short the hell out of the Nasdaq just because that would somehow be making $ off other people's misfortune? It's all based on greed whether you like it or not -- wouldn't you love to have made a fortune on RE, Ben?

To get to the point, I think it may be too late to short the homebuilders (ITB, for example), but then again, this could be just the beginning.

I'm sure Hedgestreet and CME Housing futures have been mentioned here but if not they provide plays on the direction of San Francisco home prices (which it could be argued would track Sonoma price changes reasonably well.)

http://www.hedgestreet.com/
http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/re/index16250.html

 
At 8/11/2006 07:15:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Thanks Anon for letting me know what sticker got stuck in your paw.

You know, the whole anon thing is not satisfying so let's give you a sufficiently generic name that would make me feel like I am talking to someone who wants to participate in the conversation. How about we call you John or Mike or something like that?

Back to the "drop your pants" thing... I just think that is funny, and have to admit I don't have sympathy for foolish people who fancied themselves "can't lose investors." those people who jumped on the flipping bandwagon will hardly get a nod from me.

The ones I feel for are the regular people who thought they were getting into the market for the right reasons, and ended up overleveraged because they believed the hype. You know, I would like to say "too bad, so sad." to those folks, but you know how it is, something sounds too good to be true and you have the means to get into it and turns out it was too good to be true. Everyone has done it a time or two.

Everyone should wear caveat emptor bracelets to snap on their wrist to remind them of this. However, for real estate most people talk to their friends and family, and face it, homeownership is a part of the dna hardwired into the american way... baseball, mom's apple pie and home ownership. When you are dealing with such an emotional concept- home- you are dealing with an irrational motivator.

Given this mix I understand why people haven't done the real research to be adequately informed. Most of them were not talking to investors that have been burned by real estate, they were likely talking to people who owned over the long haul and the gains they may have made look huge in lump sum amounts, but averaged out probably just kept pace with inflation. the numbers don't look like that to average joe. It looks like you can't lose and it will all work itself out.

Those people who have families and stretched themselves membrane thin to reach for the emotional brassring of home ownership and who will ultimately be the biggest losers because of the emotional toll on top of the financial carnage are who I feel bad for.

I have too many cousins who bought at the top of the market and several friends. I will not feel good about their misfortunes. There will be plenty like them and I won't feel good about what happens to them either. I am not interested in profiting off of them either, in fact it was people they called "friends" that sold them their overpriced shitboxes, and toxic loans that I think should force their re-evaluation of the meaning of the word. Those are the ones that profited of them.

If I buy when this market bottoms out, you better believe I will seek a flipper debtor house. ;-D

I am mean like that.

Up until now I have told realtors that send me listings not to send me any houses for sale bought after 2000. When all is said and done, I will likely say send me only houses bought after 2000 purchased by someone who snapped up multiple properties in the last 5 years, and overleveraged themselves and make sure the listing has been on the market over 100 days.

A big reason behind my starting this blog is a friend who felt really behind on joining the class with getting his life and finances in order, and being able to buy a house displayed some serious financial folly. Drinking the kool-aid. He is not stupid. He had the right intentions, but had friends who "didn't lose" or were in the industry, or could get him in the game, etc... and those "friends" sure do seem credible when the media and prices are telling a get rich or get left behind story.

I saw how easily it happened. The only weapon I had was to find information, data, and numbers to shed light on the reality of the kool-aid being handed out by his so called friends and family.

So, while I may sound cold hearted to all that will get Effed by the crash of the bubble... it is really reserved for the major intentional participants.

The flippers and RE and Mortgage professionals that kept mixing the kool-aid and left their integrity back in 1998 will not get much from me, other than I will make an effort to highlight them and let them serve as horrible warnings.

Athena

 
At 8/12/2006 09:18:00 AM , Blogger Marinite said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 

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