Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Sales @ a 10 Year Low for Sonoma County

"Sonoma County home sales hit a 10-year low in September and the median price declined for a third consecutive month as the housing market drops from last year's record highs."

"Homes are taking longer to sell and price cuts are accelerating, with the median dropping to $567,500 in September, a 7.7 percent decline from a year ago. It was the first three-month price drop in 12 years."

"More buyers are continuing to wait for the market to hit bottom, frustrating sellers who must increasingly compete for offers."

"The supply of homes for sale continues to exceed demand. Homes sold in September took 93 days on average to sell compared with 62 days a year ago."

'"I'm telling my clients that if you want your house sold, you need to be in front of the market," Sandy Geary, broker and owner of Remax North Bay Realty in Rohnert Park said. To draw interest from potential buyers, sellers should list their homes under the most recent sale price for a comparable home, she said."

'"And the buyers are still going to come in and ask for concessions," Geary said. "You have to be honest with your clients about what's really going on. "Buyers remain wary about purchasing homes despite lower prices and favorable interest rates, which have dipped this fall to their lowest levels since late March. Buyers don't want to pay more than a home might be worth a month or two later."

"Prices have fallen the most in Windsor, the Cotati-Rohnert Park area and west Petaluma.The greatest increases in inventory, by percent, were in Petaluma, northwest Santa Rosa and Cotati-Rohnert Park."

"One year into the current downturn, the county's housing market could remain weak through the middle of 2008, according to the latest forecast by Moody's"


At 10/21/2006 03:13:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

gotta love the math,high is 619k,places sell for $80-$100k less than last year,and it is a 7.7% the way you won't even get people lookng unless you are pricing at mid 04 prices or better,and the property had better be in good shape as well.$80 to 100k k off is for properties that went into escrow no later than the 1st week in august from what i am seeing.lots of stuff just getting completed around santa rosa,which should help keep the inventory high.

At 10/25/2006 10:57:00 AM , Anonymous Gary Anderson said...

I think Moody's is way too conservative. Already Boston is dropping below their expectations. What fundamentals have changed? What affordability factors have improved? Very few.

So, it could be five years, or even more before housing is affordable in Sonoma. If the investor/speculator realizes that average Joe is content to rent and invest the rest, these speculators will be in fear for years. They will get brutally pounded and they will give up.

Fear is a stronger emotion than greed. We are now entering the fear cycle. Many speculators now know this. And they know it could be ten years before the ship is righted. By then they will have been economically devastated.


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