Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Sunday, April 01, 2007

Sonoma County Facts & Stats

(4 Horsemen graphic shamelessly stolen from Dr. Housing Bubble since we have readers here very fond of the 4 Horsemen of the Housing Bubble Crash. Go ahead and impose Sonoma County instead of "southern california" and it will all still apply) ;-D

Foreclosures Active in Sonoma County: 1,500
Foreclosures 2/04/07 = 543
Foreclosures 1/20/07 = 523

Sonoma County MLS: 3287 (13.04 months supply)
Price Reduced: 957

Sonoma County MLS Listing Progression

3/20/06 = 1742
3/26/06 = 1766
4/03/06 = 1888
4/19/06 = 2828
4/25/06 = 2868
4/30/06 = 2898
8/10/06 = 4072
8/16/06 = 4298
8/18/06 = 4318
12/26/06 = 3002
1/06/07 = 2777
1/20/07 = 2832
2/04/07 = 2854
3/16/07 = 3160
4/01/07 = 3287

Sonoma Valley MLS: 325
Price Reduced:

Sonoma Valley MLS Listings Progression

2/14/06 = 172
2/14/06 = 183
2/24/06 = 193
2/25/06 = 200
2/27/06 = 214
3/01/06 = 219
3/04/06 = 220
3/12/06 = 230
3/20/06 = 236
3/26/06 = 238
4/03/06 = 268
4/19/06 = 291
4/25/06 = 305
4/30/06 = 315
8/10/06 = 471
8/16/06 = 487
12/26/06 = 304
12/28/06 = 300
1/20/07 = 281
2/04/07 = 269
4/01/07 = 325


At 4/01/2007 04:25:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

a not unexpected progression.inventory doubled in a year,new lending guidelines diminish the pool of buyers,foreclosures treble,prices fall a we get tha Alt-a meltdown,a HUGE wave of mortgage resets,LOTS more foreclosures,less aailable credit as lenders panic,a market that seizes up,prices in freefall,more bankruptcies,etc.whew,i'm glad the experts are so sure this won't affect the greater economy.

At 4/01/2007 06:21:00 PM , Anonymous marin_explorer said...

This effect has also been described as a "vicious cycle". Whatever you call it, there's bound to be more bad news riding into town for '07.

At 4/02/2007 06:52:00 AM , Anonymous tom stone said...

If i make a left out my driveway,vicious circle is about half a mile,just past vulture vista way,oe of the things i like about my 'hood.this negative feedback loop is not just in housing,nouriel Roubini discusses subprime auto and credit card debt,and how it ties in as well.are you familiar wirh "calculatef Risk"? I am definitely a Tanta groupie! when will playboy come out with "Babes of the housing buble blogs"? I'd love to see MV,Athena,and Tanta on the cover with arms on each others shoulders,and marinite looking Manly in the background.

At 4/02/2007 09:02:00 AM , Blogger Lisa said...

From the 4 Horsemen chart..."In addition, those who bought for appreciation will no longer be in the market."

Hmmm...Isn't this pretty much everyone who bought over the last few years???!! Especially all those first time buyers with stars in their eyes. Who on earth would want to go hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt and have all the responsibility of home ownership when it does nothing to add to your financial future?? Talk about a ball and chain.

The only people left to buy will be those who don't need a home to provide the road to riches, who want to take out a 10 or 15 year loan and get the place paid off to help with retirement. And they won't at these prices, I bet.

At 4/02/2007 10:52:00 AM , Anonymous marinite said...

and marinite looking Manly in the background


At 4/02/2007 11:26:00 AM , Anonymous tom stone said...

Easy to do Marinite!,just don't shave for a couple of days,and sip chardonnay from a dirty worked for sean penn,why not you?

At 4/02/2007 11:34:00 AM , Blogger sf jack said...

I could be wrong, and I don't know where I got this notion, but I think marinite would have to do a lot more than "not shave" in order to look "Manly".


At 4/02/2007 12:44:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

Oh wait! Is Marinite a girl? Good lord, if so, I have been most sexist assuming the calm, rational and analytical style not to be of the female persuasion. Especially considering that it is my gender. eek... how socialization and stereotypes lurk where you least expect them. :-/

At 4/02/2007 01:14:00 PM , Anonymous marin_explorer said...

Is Marinite a girl?

LOL...not again!

"...Who on earth would want to go hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt...that adds nothing"

Yes, who on earth should expect that--unless you're one of the herd that believes the Bay Area cannot possibly fail. We'll see.

At 4/02/2007 01:50:00 PM , Blogger sf jack said...

"'Is Marinite a girl'?

LOL...not again!"



Perhaps I *was* confused by the earlier (confusing) episode on this subject.

At 4/02/2007 02:33:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

Who knows? except the shadow,perhaps?although i have known more than one woman that would make the governator look sweet and girlish in comparison.perhaps marinite is like some i have met in berkeley,she/he/she? sheesh.


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