Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

What Bubble, Indeed!

Median household income in Sonoma County is about 60k. The median household should be able to afford the payments on a $180k house.

73.8% of Sonoma County homes lost value in Q2.

95.1% of Sonoma County homes lost value in the past 12 months.

% of Sonoma County Home Purchases that are now underwater (house value worth less than the outstanding mortgage amount)

50.4% of homes bought in 2007 are underwater
Median Price: $550,000
Average Price: $656,258

65.9% of homes bought in 2006 are underwater
Median: $580,000
Average: $673,785

66% of homes bought in 2005 are underwater
Median: $591,000
Average: $674,388

46.9% of homes bought in 2004 are underwater
Median: $499,000
Average: $571,652

22.3% of homes bought in 2003 are underwater
Median: $420,000
Average: $486,498

Percentage of Sonoma County home buyers choosing some form of I/O, Negative amortizing and adjustable-rate mortgages

2003 - 36.8%
2004 - 59.4%
2005 - 69%

Recent Sonoma Valley Courthouse Step Auctioned Properties

Sonoma Valley Sheriff Sale List, as of 8-13-08

Sonoma Valley Foreclosed Properties, as of 8-13-08
69 properties on the "Foreclosed" list. (click picture to enlarge)

Sonoma Valley Notice of Default List, as of 8-13-08
110 properties (click picture to enlarge)

One thing of note... there was an RE agent who used to publish ads in the local paper asking: "What Bubble?" ... That RE agent is on the notice of default list.


At 8/13/2008 07:24:00 PM , Anonymous Tom Stone said...

And this is still the beginning.Only 1300 foreclosures a day in california,so far...wait 'til credit gets tight.

At 8/14/2008 06:32:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

"What Bubble?"

I'm reminded of that realty office on Sonoma Square, displaying the "There is no bubble" prominently in their window. Is that office still in business?

Those are some staggering figures for Sonoma. It's a little unnerving to see where we're headed now that it's hit the fan--social upheaval perhaps?

At 8/14/2008 08:05:00 PM , Anonymous Tom Stone said...

M.E. social upheaval seems likely,we are less than a third of the way through this if things go well.

At 8/14/2008 11:08:00 PM , Blogger Tyrone said...

Here's just a random selection from Santa Rosa...

1400 RUSCH CT, Santa Rosa, CA

For sale: $239,000

Sale History
05/05/2004: $415,000
04/30/2002: $284,000
09/09/1999: $187,000

1999, here we come!

At 8/15/2008 09:07:00 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

1231 Hahman, SR

Bought for $510k on 8/25/2006

Currently for sale by bank: $210k

59% drop in 2 years

At 8/15/2008 11:28:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

Now, that's the kind of hussle I like to see! ;-D

At 8/15/2008 11:29:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

ME- maybe that office was the same one where the re agent worked? anyway- there were ads practically every week with the agent mugging for the camera saying... "What bubble?" and "there is no bubble" ... Can you hear me now? ;-)

At 8/15/2008 11:43:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

...there is no bubble" ... Can you hear me now?"

I think I do, and it sounds like this. ;-)

At 8/17/2008 08:44:00 PM , Anonymous Tom Stone said...

I have been noticing quite a few new "for sale" signs around sebastopol since August first,just in my normal travels.Just out of curiousity I checked the newspaper to see the ads,and oddly very few were advertised saturday or sunday.i then checked Craigslist,and there they were in blurry glory.Budgets may be getting a bit tight...

At 8/18/2008 02:07:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

Athena! Moonvalley here.Great to see you back. I've been wondering about what's been going on here since what we were talking about for the last couple of years has happened.
I happened to run into the flippers that I wrote about last year. They didn't look happy. I walked into a discussion about the bankruptcy laws in Florida, where one can go bust and still keep ones' house. The male part of the package muttered darkly that he should have bought his houses in Florida. Indeed!

At 8/18/2008 02:19:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

another thing is that the realty trac foreclosure news I'd get every once in a while now seems to come in daily if not twice a day.

At 8/18/2008 04:25:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

MV!!! Good to see you! Wow, would love to hear all about it. coffee? dinner? send me an email.


At 8/18/2008 05:45:00 PM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

"...The male part of the package muttered darkly that he should have bought his houses in Florida"

MV, Seriously? There's nothing like enjoying Florida as a redux of 1926. Would that FB Ramen dinner taste any sweeter there?

At 8/19/2008 05:36:00 PM , Anonymous Tom Stone said...

DQ came out with their monthly report.At $399k we are halfway there!I suspect some are already carsick,and others need a pee break,but this is progress.

At 8/19/2008 08:54:00 PM , Anonymous Fred said...

Would you mind getting your facts correct?
The median price is NOT 399K.
As of July, median price in Sonoma county is 362K(per DQNews).


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