Geeze, I Rode This RE Elevator All The Way Up. If I Jump Reeeally High Before It Crashes I'll Be Ok
Property values bracing for a fall
Home prices across Bay Area are likely to drop, study says
Homeowners across most of the Bay Area stand a 55 percent or greater chance that their property values will slip in the next two years, according to a quarterly study by a mortgage insurer.
That's a headline story in today's SF Gate. Does the public believe it? Afraid not. When polled a little further down in the story about 49% of those asked didn't think anything of the kind would happen.Not here in the Bay Area. Not here in the home of Twinkle Dust and Tinkerbell. Sure.
"Still, many industry insiders remain optimistic that the market will remain in positive territory.
"The reason prices go down is because job markets are hit," said Avram Goldman, president of Coldwell Banker of Northern California. "The market is transitioning -- but we've been in such a frenzied sellers' market for so long, people don't know what a regular market is like."
People don't know what a regular market is. People who just fell off the turnip truck that is...though of course this being Sonoma, maybe I should say the grape wagon. There are a whole group of buyers out there who don't remember the early ninties, or even further back to the early eighties. Either they were too young to be in the housing market, or they were busy working their first jobs, or going to school and renting to pay much attention to those who got their asses caught in the ringer that time. It's their turn in the barrel now. Of course the article goes on to mention how "creative" the loan industry is being, helping folks into 40 and 50 year mortgages trying to make things "affordable". TRhat to me is the same as clothing manufacturers who run the sizes up as high as say 20, then start all over again, at 2,4, 6 etc hoping people won't notice how big their pants are getting. "Hey, I'm just a 2 shoot me some more of that there pie" Maybe 49 and 50 year mortages are just part of the changing American size world. Extra large toilet seats, jumbo coffins, and great big fat mortgages. If you need any of them you might have a problem worth looking into.
Meanwhile crusing around Sonoma keeping my eyes and ears open. We were at dinner last night in one of our more popular watering holes seated near what turned out to be two RE women. One kept chanting to the other, "It's a Buyers market, it's a Buyers market, it's a Buyers market!" I guess those are todays talking points.
One final thing, I'd like to throw out there is the subject of something I've been reading about which is ReConveyance Scams. They seem to be particularly popular here in Northern Ca. As per the California Mortgage Law Blog:
Beware "Mortgage Elimination" Scams
Several of our clients have been harmed by "mortgage elimination" scams being promoted nationwide by two Northern California men, D. Scott Heineman and Kurt F. Johnson. The scheme has been marketed through Internet discussion groups, Craigslist.org, e-mail, conference calls, conventions and dozens of web sites which claim that the entire federal banking and monetary systems are illegitimate. For a fee of between $1,000 and $3,000, promoters claim that they can eliminate a mortgage through an elaborate process by which they ultimately prepare and record fraudulent documents that purportedly release the lender's security interest. In some cases, they then obtain new mortgage loans and receive as much as 50% of the loan proceeds. Among the business names associated with scheme are Capital Creation Resource, The Dorean Group, Oxford Trust, Universal Trust and DTE Financial.
Usually, lenders don't discover the fraudulent reconveyance documents until several months later when their borrowers stop making payments and they try to start foreclosure. Litigation is then necessary to cancel the fraudulent reconveyance documents so that lenders can proceed with foreclosure.
State and federal law enforcement investigations led to Heineman's arrest on May 28, 2005 and to Johnson's arrest on July 21, 2005. Both men are facing felony charges in Salt Lake City, UT, and they have also been charged with wire fraud, bank fraud, mail fraud and money laundering in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California in San Francisco where U.S. District Court Judge William Alsup has recently issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting the defendants from further violating 18 U.S.C. § 1341 (Mail Fraud), 18 U.S.C. § 1343 (Wire Fraud), and 18 U.S.C. § 1344 (Bank Fraud) through their “mortgage elimination” program, and from alienating or disposing of property obtained as a result of said violations. However, acolytes of Heineman and Johnson are still operating many of the same websites that promote their "mortgage-elimination" scam despite these recent law enforcement actions.
You can obtain more information from the Sacramento Bee which has been following this story since earlier this year and from this story originally published by a reporter for Inman News.
I've been wondering how much of this re-conveyance junk is floating around town here. Sweetheart deals between agents and flippers. How much money is being sucked out of the local market and how much of that is partly responsible for the jacked up prices.
Speaking of jacked, my ex neighbor meanwhile is preparing to move into the new digs, which of course they're planning on flipping in 2 years. They paid over 650k for this dump, they're going to most likely put in another 50 to 100k in fixings I just don't see what's gonna happen in two years. My guess a RE picnic where they're bringing a basket of money to the closing, or the Sheriff at the door. They actually were at our house quoting Donald Trump to us this last week. Telling us how things were going up up up and Mr. Trump says so!! So there. Oh, by the way Donald Trump sent me an invitation to meet a group of actual live millionaires, and have a complimentary lunch, and attend a Trump Strategies for Real Estate seminar!! It was personally addressed to me...Resident. Ya gotta love The Donald.