Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

NAR's Faustian Moment


Marinite brought up in a comment that today being 6/06/06 ...if ever there was a Faustian moment in the making, today is the day.

Personally, speak the devil's name and you give him power and I believe in no such supernatural force. The closest thing to something bedeviled I can think of is oh... a talking head for NAR.

Speaking of Faustian moments... Did y'all hear that NAR is begging the Fed to stop raising rates because of housing market vulnerability?

“The National Association of Realtors on Tuesday lowered its forecast for U.S. home sales in 2006 and called on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates because parts of the housing market are ‘vulnerable.’”

bwahaahhahahaha!!! But I thought there WAS no bubble? I thought we heard the gains in the last 5 years were justifiable because they aren't making any more land, and there is simply not enough housing to meet demand, and everyone wants to live here? And everyone who took out a suicide loan, or lifetime indentured servitude loan, or heaven forbid the negative amortizing take it in the butt loan were fully qualfied and will have no problem making their payments? The lenders researched this! How can there be vulnerability?

“‘Experiencing a slowing from a hot market is a good thing because we need a solid housing sector to provide an underlying base to the economy, and slower appreciation will help to preserve long-term affordability,’ said David Lereah, the group’s chief economist.”

“‘But this is a time for the Fed to pause on rate hikes because we have some interest-sensitive housing markets that have become vulnerable,’ he said.”

But according to that Coldwell Banker Asshat...Rates are still at an all time low. Rates haven't been this low since Kennedy was in the White House. That's what he said. He has been in the business for 25 years. He has researched this!

Why would NAR want to hit the interest rate panic button?

I mean back in the day... in the 80's people had 15% & 18% interest rates. Sheesh... we aren't even anywhere near those numbers for those with qualifying income and good credit. What's the big deal? (insert snide laughter here)

Oh my stars!!!... What's this?... Have prices risen to unsustainable levels? Are they in danger of plummeting because there is no sustainable market that can keep these artifically, specuvestor inflated prices propped up? Good heavens!!! What will become of the realtors?

"The U.S. housing market has been steadily cooling down after a five-year run that shattered sales and construction records. (this is what we call an asset bubble my friends) The market began to slow last year as mortgage rates started to climb."

“‘Historically, home prices rise 1.5 to 2 percentage points faster than the rate of inflation, so the rise we anticipate in existing home prices this year is actually a little above the high end of historic norms,’ Lereah said.”

But here in Sonoma County, housing prices DOUBLED in 5 years time. That certainly is not 1.5% to 2% above inflation.

So the real issue is that many in the real estate, mortgage lending and construction industries are in danger of being out of work if they can't keep selling overpriced chitboxes to the terminally indebted who no longer even want to own a house or ever pay off a mortgage, but just want the pleasure of renting from the bank indefinitely!

7 Comments:

At 6/06/2006 02:13:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

lereah and the nar are not only dishonest and crazy,they are stupid.even if the fed were in a position th drop rates a full point (byebye usd) it would not revive this market.bubbles are manias...there was no rational reason for prices to get this high,and while there are many reasons for them to correct...the bubble is over because attitudes shifted...prices hit a wall that not even insane lending practices and out of control greed could overcome...and soon will come the scapegoating...won't it be fun to watch the pd find someone to blame for the nonexistent bubble in a few months?

 
At 6/06/2006 03:41:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

I liked this comment by anonymous over at BubbleMeter:

I couldn't figure out why these Realtor folks are blaming "higher" interest rates for the imminent downturn, since the 30 year rate hasn't really risen much at all yet. And why lobby for a lower rate from the Fed, since changes in the Fed's short term rates don't always have much effect on the 30 year mortgage rates?

But when you look at the 1/1, 3/1, and 5/1 ARM's that have been abused to get people into houses they can't really afford, there actually has been a steady rise in rates over the past few years. And those rates typically do respond immediately to the Fed's rate changes. The real estate industry is addicted to these artificially low short term interest rates, and is reacting like a crack addict desperate for a fix.


sums it up quite well I think.

These guys KNOW they have been shistering the great unwashed into houses they couldn't afford and pocketing the proceeds. sheesh... makes me want to take a shower just thinking about the kind of people that make this a profession.

 
At 6/06/2006 04:23:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

I LOVE comments by getstucco!

David to Ben: “Please, please, please spike the punch bowl just one more time, for old-times’ sake. Because if housing demand is no longer driven by speculative mania, and only depends on the demand from people who just want a place to live, then housing prices will have to drop pretty much everywhere, even though there is no national housing bubble, or any housing bubble for that matter. We need strong speculative demand from investors in order to keep housing prices up on the permanently high plateau which they have achieved.”

 
At 6/06/2006 05:07:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

stole this from the housing bubble blog.... LMAO!!!!

Do we need this law? Isn't this who the Real Estate Industry is for?

NEW LAW COMING FROM CONGRESS — AMERICANS WITH NO ABILITIES ACT

WASHINGTON, DC - Congress is considering sweeping legislation, which provides new benefits for many Americans. The Americans With NoAbilities Act (AWNAA) is being hailed as a major legislation by advocates of the millions of Americans who lack any real skills or
ambition.

“Roughly 50 percent of Americans do not possess the competence and drive necessary to carve out a meaningful role for themselves in society,” said Barbara Boxer. “We can no longer stand by and allow People of Inability to be ridiculed and passed over. With this legislation, employers will no longer be able to grant special favors to a small group of workers, simply because they do a better job, or have some idea of what they are doing.”

The President pointed to the success of the US Postal Service, which has a long-standing policy of providing opportunity without regard to performance.

Approximately 74 percent of postal employees lack job skills, making this agency the single largest US employer of Persons of Inability.

Private sector industries with good records of nondiscrimination against the Inept include retail sales (72%), the airline industry (68%),and home improvement “warehouse” stores (65%) The DMV also has a great record of hiring Persons of Inability. (63%)

Under the Americans With No Abilities Act, more than 25 million “middle man” positions will be created, with important-sounding titles but little real responsibility, thus providing an illusory sense of purpose and performance.

Mandatory non-performance-based raises and promotions will be given, to guarantee upward mobility for even the most unremarkable employees. The legislation provides substantial tax breaks to corporations which maintain a significant level of Persons of Inability in middle positions, and gives a tax credit to small and medium businesses that agree to hire one clueless worker for every two talented hires.

Finally, the AWNA ACT contains tough new measures to make it more
difficult to discriminate against the Nonabled, banning discriminatory
interview questions such as “Do you have any goals for the future?” or “Do you have any skills or experience which relate to this job?”

“As a Nonabled person, I can’t be expected to keep up with people who have something going for them,” said Mary Lou Gertz, who lost her position as a lug-nut twister at the GM plant in Flint, MI due to her lack of notable job skills. “This new law should really help people like me.” With the passage of this bill, Gertz and millions of other untalented citizens can finally see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Said Senator Ted Kennedy, “It is our duty as lawmakers to provide each and every American citizen, regardless of his or her adequacy, with some sort of space to take up in this great nation.”

 
At 6/07/2006 07:18:00 AM , Blogger David said...

Great Post! We need the mainstream media to catch on and take to task the NAR.

 
At 6/07/2006 10:18:00 AM , Blogger Marinite said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 6/07/2006 07:07:00 PM , Anonymous tom stone said...

i like awnaa,and folks who have even less ability can always go into government,they would give this administration some real competition

 

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