Sonoma Housing Bubble

Pulling the cork out of Sonoma's bubbly housing foolishness

Thursday, July 27, 2006

....Must Come Down


You know the first part of the title already don't you?

What goes up....

And now even the national news media has noticed a whole lotta something coming down.

We're taking bets on how long it will take before the FB's get their glass stomach's cleaned up enough to read the writing on the wall. When the national news media is considered progressive compared to the awareness of the average joe... it makes for good fun to calculate just how much of a leading indicator they are... I say a year before they pull their heads out far enough to panic.... what are your predictions?

"Sales of new homes fell in June for the first time in four months, and the government also lowered figures for May, providing further evidence the high-flying housing market is losing altitude."

"The government marked down sales activity in May to a pace of 1.166 million units, substantially below its initial estimate of 1.234 million units. Analysts pointed to the drop in sales last month and the downward revision for May as fresh evidence that housing was slowing considerably from the impact of higher mortgage rates."

"The big worry is that home sales will fall so sharply that it could send shock waves through the economy, much as the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000 contributed to the recession the next year."

"In June, sales were weak in every section of the country except the West, which posted an 8.2 percent increase after a decline of 7.3 percent in May. Sales fell 11.3 percent in the Northeast and were down 7.9 percent in the Midwest and 6 percent in the South."

"The Commerce Department reported Thursday that new home sales dropped by 3 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 1.131 million units. It was the first decline since an 11.5 percent drop in February."

"Analysts said the drop in new home sales was consistent with the slowdown shown this week in sales of existing homes, which fell for the eighth time in the past 10 months."

'"The housing market peaked a year ago and has been slowly deflating ever since," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We can expect another year of lower sales with price declines in some parts of the country."'

7 Comments:

At 7/27/2006 11:17:00 PM , Blogger moonvalley said...

Couldn't resist passing on this story about the next frontier in home improvement. No more granite counter tops, screening rooms or wine cellars now it's making one's garage a showplace. "Liveable" as they say. Hmmm, gonna be a whole lot of FB'ers out there looking to park their butts right next to their non-running Hummers.

 
At 7/27/2006 11:36:00 PM , Blogger Athena said...

well lets give it a post all it's own MV!!!

 
At 7/28/2006 01:15:00 AM , Blogger moonvalley said...

ok, like you I've been busy with what I get paid for but let me see what I can cook up.

 
At 7/28/2006 08:55:00 AM , Blogger marin_explorer said...

a $1 million, 4,000-square-foot, four-car garage for a client who wants walk-in storage closets, elevator access to the house, and pet condos for 10 dogs and cats (with videoconference facilities so the owners can keep in touch with their animals when they travel).

Nice that excessive money always presents simple solutions to common problems.

 
At 7/28/2006 10:22:00 AM , Blogger Marinite said...

Frankly, I wouldn't want to buy a house that does not have a garage where I can park my car.

 
At 7/31/2006 11:20:00 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe that by the end of October a lot of people will be in a lot of economic pain. Even my most bullish real estate industry friends are calling the Bay Area RE market flat, or saying it's changed to a 'buyer's market'. Six months ago they were all saying the market could never go down here because it is so unique and all the immigrants would prop up the market.

 
At 7/31/2006 11:28:00 AM , Blogger Athena said...

I keep hearing that the Sonoma housing market won't go down, because there are still a ton of people moving here from areas that are more expensive and they are willing to commute to their good jobs. so if this is so... then why aren't their incomes reflected in the economic demographics? Why are the average household income stats so low? Why is it then that the income needed to buy a median priced home is 150k+ and only 7% of households in the county qualify?

 

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